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#1
08-11-2005, 01:10 PM
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Near Bubble MTT hand
Any and all constructive criticism on this hand is greatly appreciated.
Late in the 2+0 Super Satellite on Pokerstars 170 players remain of 1054 top 99 make the money Average Chip Stack 11K Villian: 18K Hero (SB): 12K Big Blind: 4K Blinds 600/1200 Ante: 75 Starting pot t2475 Notes on players include Big Blind is very tight and Button is a known blind stealer. Folds to Button who raises to 3600 (Pot t6075) Hero reraises All-In to 12K with 4h 4d (Pot t17400) BB folds; Button Calls (Pot t28725) Estimating that the BB will fold 95% of the time, the Button is on a steal 70% of the time and will fold if pushed all in, and 25% of the time will be coinflip, with the other 5% of the time higher pocketpair, is this a Negative or Positive EV move? I know that 44 is not an amazing hand, but please factor in reads and estimates preflop. A double up here puts me in the top 5 in chips. Thank you, AWLurch 
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#2
08-11-2005, 01:22 PM
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Re: Near Bubble MTT hand
[ QUOTE ]
Any and all constructive criticism on this hand is greatly appreciated. Late in the 2+0 Super Satellite on Pokerstars 170 players remain of 1054 top 99 make the money Average Chip Stack 11K Villian: 18K Hero (SB): 12K Big Blind: 4K Blinds 600/1200 Ante: 75 Starting pot t2475 Notes on players include Big Blind is very tight and Button is a known blind stealer. Folds to Button who raises to 3600 (Pot t6075) Hero reraises All-In to 12K with 4h 4d (Pot t17400) BB folds; Button Calls (Pot t28725) Estimating that the BB will fold 95% of the time, the Button is on a steal 70% of the time and will fold if pushed all in, and 25% of the time will be coinflip, with the other 5% of the time higher pocketpair, is this a Negative or Positive EV move? I know that 44 is not an amazing hand, but please factor in reads and estimates preflop. A double up here puts me in the top 5 in chips. Thank you, AWLurch [/ QUOTE ] Not an awful play, but your #s are wrong. Button is on a steal 70% of the time and will fold if pushed all in, and 25% of the time will be coinflip, with the other 5% of the time higher pocketpair You say he is on a "steal" 70% of the time, and therefore since higher pocket pair is 5% (too low) that this will be a coinflip 25% of the time? What is he is stealing with? 89s, t7o 67s, qt etc...? all coinflips...only hands you are dominating here are A2-A4 other big-small hands that he probably wouldnt do this with. So a good 90% of those so called "steal" hands will be coinflips as well. Now if you mean "steal" as "he will fold to any reraise" than maybe your #s are better. This hand is all about fold equity, and if called, just praying its two overs.
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#4
08-11-2005, 01:43 PM
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Re: Near Bubble MTT hand
[ QUOTE ]
What I mean by the 70% steal, is that 70% of the time the hand will not be good enough to call an all in with. Thanks, AWLurch [/ QUOTE ] Ok...that seems fair I think...although when he does call youll only be better than a coinflip a small minority of the time. FWIW, I like this play...youre not even itm yet and this is when chips can easily be accumulated. Sorry he beat you but I wouldnt kill yourself over this play. I would guess its +EV even with a wide calling range.
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