a no-brainer....sadly i don't know what side of the brain to listen to

bluefeet · #1 08-09-2005, 11:28 PM

25+2 turbo
PokerStars Game #2303075995: Tournament #11113649, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2005/08/09 - 22:27:09 (ET)
Table '11113649 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 4: dak1616 (4289 in chips)
Seat 6: bluefeet (4417 in chips)
Seat 8: deecoyy (4794 in chips)
dak1616: posts the ante 25
bluefeet: posts the ante 25
deecoyy: posts the ante 25
dak1616: posts small blind 200
bluefeet: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bluefeet [Jd Jc]
deecoyy: raises 4369 to 4769 and is all-in
dak1616: calls 4064 and is all-in
bluefeet ???

- take 1st in one hand
- or, finish 3rd
- or, go HU a 2:1 dog

i'm very confident in my HU play, and with the blinds hitting 300/600 i figured i'd get back even HU quick enough.

eh.....i'm a puss i think. comments?

just for fun, lets say there was a t1500 chipper that folded - still 4-handed. an easier fold?

bluefeet · #2 08-09-2005, 11:34 PM

hmmmm....i guess that's why they call it a no-brainer -- don't have to listen to either side [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] (i need to go to bed)

#3 08-09-2005, 11:38 PM

this a prime example of gambling for first when it gets down to three players. jj is still a monster in this spot. i would go for the high prize rung and push it.

Shillx · #4 08-09-2005, 11:41 PM

Well if you lost this pot, you would finish 2nd half the time and 3rd the other half if you are all 33% to win. EV = 33%. Of course you would want to play if you had a significant edge here, but you could also be up against it too. Tough to call.

If you duck out of the way, your EV = .5*.33 + .3*.66 = 36.7%

Fold unless you think that you are better then about 45% to win the pot. This will be rare.

Brad

Edit - It will not be rare to have enough equity to call here, though it is thin.

11t · #5 08-09-2005, 11:41 PM

I fold here but if I had them both covered I would probably call.

bluefeet · #6 08-09-2005, 11:45 PM

feelling MUCH more manly now [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ...thx guys

#7 08-09-2005, 11:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If you duck out of the way, your EV = .5*.33 + .3*.66 = 36.7%

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate this logic, because JJ has at least 50% equity against the other two hands in the threeway pot. i would estimate it at about 60 percent.

assume 1st gives 5, 2nd gives 3, and 3rd gives 2

by gambling here: it's (.6*5)+(.5*2), which gives you an EV of 4 buyins

therefore, you should only not fold when you think you can beat this guy more than half the time. yes, you're prob better than him, but with the blinds this way (and rapidly escalating), i don't give you better than a 40% chance of overcoming.

feel free to dispute my math, esp. JJ's equity to win the hand threeway like that.

Shillx · #8 08-09-2005, 11:52 PM

You are way off with the 60% estimate. It will oftentimes have 45% though.

It is about 45% against AK and 66. Likewise against AK and AQ. The only way to get huge equity is when you are up against two hands like 88 and 44 (over 60) or AK and AT (this is like 55 at best). It is 45 against any pair/AT+ for both players.

Brad

Mr_J · #9 08-09-2005, 11:59 PM

3 handed I call.

4 handed I fold.

#10 08-09-2005, 11:59 PM

consider that stacks are 10BB deep and blinds are about to rise

bluefeet needs to help us with some reads, but i would push the first raiser on any pair, any ace, any kind, and any coordinated pair of cards (like 87s up to QJo).

The second overcaller likely has any pp , A9 or higher, and KJ or better.

I would easily put JJ at 60% against that range, no?