I'm 7 of 29 with AA vs KK down to JJ vs QQ

solidswede · #1 08-09-2005, 11:58 PM

I thought I had been running bad for awhile so as of August first I decided to keep track of all hands that went to a showdown. When I have had AA vs KK down to me having jj vs QQ I have only won 7 out of 29 times. This is either a hu pot or a multiway pot with no overcards. I play anywhere from 30-60 down to 3-6. Normal or?

DeeJ · #2 08-10-2005, 11:21 AM

You had no replies.

I think this is because your question is rather difficult to understand. Are you trying to establish if you're

a) running bad with big pairs running up against bigger pairs

or

b) running bad with bigger pairs losing (because of lucky flops) to smaller pairs?

Basic stats will tell you that when you hold AA there's approximately a 1 in 22 chance someone else holds KK, on a full ring table. And vice versa.

the chances of the KK hitting their trips are about 1 in 8, as they are for any pocket pair (assuming the cards are not dead elsewhere in other hands).

solidswede · #3 08-10-2005, 02:24 PM

I was more checking to see if other 2+2 has encountered the same type of dryspells. I see alot of posts about people on a 200-300 big bet downswing, but rarley do they say how they lost it. I guess my question should more read like if I'm 7 for 29 with AA vs KK down to JJ vs QQ is it logical that I'm down 100big bets for that reason alone.

Thanks

etizzle · #4 08-10-2005, 02:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm 7 for 29 with AA vs KK down to JJ vs QQ

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your problem is that this makes no sense.

slavic · #5 08-10-2005, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was more checking to see if other 2+2 has encountered the same type of dryspells. I see alot of posts about people on a 200-300 big bet downswing, but rarley do they say how they lost it. I guess my question should more read like if I'm 7 for 29 with AA vs KK down to JJ vs QQ is it logical that I'm down 100big bets for that reason alone.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I hit a 100BB downsing yesterday over a few thousand hands. Of course I printed out every hand I could and started plowing through them to identify what the hell I was doing wrong and it seemed to me that I had had an inordinant number of big pairs cracked. When I looked at it though the numbers were normal it's just that it happened in larger pots, later i nthe hand and I noticed it because of that. My real losses came from pushing small edges out of the BB when a few players had decent redraws. Their draws hit a little more frequently than maybe they should have but that is to be expected sometimes.

In all of it I also identifide 13BB that I just pissed away on fruitless BS,10 or so on questionable calls, and I should be flogged accordingly. So with that said it's time to break out the epoxy and start plugging leaks. These big slides are rarely just one problem.

solidswede · #6 08-10-2005, 03:17 PM

Sorry, more detail. The situation has been that I either have had AA vs KK, KK vs AA, KK vs QQ, QQ vs KK, QQ vs JJ or JJ vs QQ, 29 times but I have only won 7.

SheridanCat · #7 08-10-2005, 03:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, more detail. The situation has been that I either have had AA vs KK, KK vs AA, KK vs QQ, QQ vs KK, QQ vs JJ or JJ vs QQ, 29 times but I have only won 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is hard to say since you don't say how many times you had which hand. I seriously doubt that this, alone, is the reason for your downswing.

Since these are all about 4:1 shots (for or against you), they cancel out if evenly distributed. Let's say it was 30 hands and you had each of them 5 times. In that case, I would have expected you to win half of them -- OVER THE LONG RUN! 30 hands is a trivial sample size.

Unless I've missed something.

Regards,

T

damaniac · #8 08-10-2005, 03:29 PM

To the extent that this will tell you anything, you'd be better served to separate the "I have AA vs. KK, KK vs. qq" etc, and the "I have KK vs. AA" hands, since they are very different. Also, it doesn't really tell us much since we don't know how many of those 29 times you had the higher pair. But again, this won't really tell us anything anyway.

DcifrThs · #9 08-10-2005, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, more detail. The situation has been that I either have had AA vs KK, KK vs AA, KK vs QQ, QQ vs KK, QQ vs JJ or JJ vs QQ, 29 times but I have only won 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

well after much study, ive isolated the problem.

this is retarded.

-Barron

solidswede · #10 08-10-2005, 05:40 PM

why Barron? I have fulltime poker for years and been a big winner at all games up to 50-100. These days I play mostly online because of wanting to stay home with my two young children. Is it retarted because I don't explain it well or because my win loss record is poor. Barron I respect your opinion and I think you write well, so please elaborate