Pot Odds Situation

[scal78]

This situation comes up A LOT, especially in multi table tournaments.

I understand the concept of pot odds in regards to how many outs I need to have a "made hand" vs. how much it's going to cost me in relation to the pot. I have no problem with this part of the game and when it constitutes calling or laying the hand down.

The hole in my game is pre-flop.

This scenario happens a lot, especially when you are already in the money. As you know, it becomes an all in battle pre-flop, especially on Stars.

Let's say I am on the button and we're 9 handed. The blinds are 2000/4000 and I have 80K. I have K-9 off. I raise the blinds to 12,000. SB folds. BB has 30K and pushes all in.

The pot now has 48K. It's going to cost me 22K to call (8K to call my raise, and 22K left after the push).

That makes my pot odds roughly 2.1:1, right?

My question ultimately is this:
In this situation, where the range of hands that the BB could have is quite large, but I am still likely an underdog, where should my pot odds be to make it a worthwhile call?

If there are holes in my math, please forgive me. I appreciate the feedback.

It all depends on what you think your opponent might have, and his likelyhood of having it. If you think he'd make this move only with pairs higher then 9s and A-x (where x is higher then 9), and assume an even chance at him having all hands in the range, then you would need 3.5 to 1 pot odds to call in this situation. If you give a wider range of hands, and different distributions, the problem would be more complicated. Let's look at a possible solution:

If opponent would push with any pair, any ace-high, any king-high, and queen-jack, queen-10, queen-9, and will occaisionally be on a total bluff, and we then assume a slightly higher chance of the better hands, we can make a chart that looks like this:

10% chance of bluff (two undercards)

60% chance of any pair or ace-x, x nine or higher

30% chance of weaker hand then previous case


Now we just need to find the win percentages against all ranges of hands, and then find the total win percentage.

Against a bluff, our hand is a little less then a 2 to 1 favorite (actually about 1.7 repeating).

Against a strong hand, the positions are reversed, and our hand is about a 2 to 1 dog (actually about 1.94 to 1).

Against the weaker holdings that aren't bluffs, our hand is about even.

So now we just multiply our win chances with the percentages we already assumed for our opponents hand:

64% * 10%
+
34% * 60%
+
50% * 30%

41.8% of the time our hand will win the pot. That's odds of about 1.4 to 1. So if the pot is offering you better then 1.4 to 1, a call is correct.


Most of the time in a tournament, you wont have the time to go through all these calculations, but doing some of them when you're not busy will help prepare you for situations at the table. You don't need to know the odds in every situation, but having an idea of the odds allows you to figure out, based on your opponents range of hands, if you are getting pot odds to call an all-in bet.

[spaminator101]

in situations like these math often goes out the window until you are able to put the big blind on a few probable hands and then the math is easy
is he tight agressive
will he resteal
or is he a maniac

[scal78]

I really appreciate the feedback to this rpose. Thanks.

I think you have to look at just more than pot odds at this point in the tourney. I would make the Call, here are my reasons. Though this is a border line call.

His chip count is relatively low compared to the blinds. He might be calling with just any face card assuming you dont know much about the player.

If you fold, this will lead to more players not taking your raises seriously. Not to mention after you fold, you leave your self with few 12k less chips, 2 less orbits. Since i dont know your position on the call it is a little harder for an analysis. Like if you were on the button, i would look at this as a steel attempt and if i had 30k I would push all in with Ax or Kx. If you were UTG, then if I was big blind I would need a serious hand to push you all in.

Finally, finishing in the money is nice and all, but placing in the top 3 is best. You have to grab as many chips as you can, even if it means going to the races.