Fire a second barrel?

kongo_totte · #1 08-03-2005, 10:40 PM

Villian is 20/5. I put him on a mid-over pair and I think I can make him fold it by betting the turn. Should I?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+2 ($100.80)
Hero ($50)
MP2 ($82.15)
MP3 ($139.60)
CO ($73.05)
Button ($33)
SB ($47.25)
BB ($24.80)
UTG ($44.95)
UTG+1 ($42.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 6 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($13.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10.

River: ($33.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Final Pot: $53.75

bingledork · #2 08-03-2005, 10:49 PM

with 2 overcards and the nutflush draw, the turn bet is all good. I'd call the river too, and probably lose to a 7.

stu-unger · #3 08-04-2005, 12:18 AM

if u didnt put him on a medium pp that might as well be 77, this might be a nice spot to get cute and push to get him off of the chop.

i like the 2nd barrel on the turn when u pick up the nut flush draw with 2 seemingly live overs.

NH

Malachii · #4 08-04-2005, 01:21 AM

Hey Kongo,

As I mentioned earlier, I think betting the turn here is the right play.

You have roughly 34% pot equity here (15/44).

I did the math and the break even point for this bet is that he needs to fold > 37% of the time for this bet to be +EV (assuming no bets go in on the river.)

This, however, is not a correct figure because by betting you are creating a larger pot and thus giving yourself much better implied odds if you hit.

If you check behind on the turn and hit a spade and decide to 2/3rds of the pot, that's an 8$ bet. If you semi bluff, get called, and hit your flush on the river, you can bet 22$. Betting is therefore superior to checking here because it gives you fold equity, better implied odds, and it disguises your overcards if you hit on the river.

savman · #5 08-04-2005, 01:50 AM

this is 50NL, players are not laying down 88 77 99 on this board for 10 dollars; which isnt to say i wouldnt bet this turn, i would give myself a little better odds, but not weak enough to induce a raise.

jonnyUCB · #6 08-04-2005, 02:08 AM

Hows your image? Do you think he notices?

Whether I fire a 2nd barrel or a continuation bet at all depends on what I know of the player and what they know of me. If I haven't shown a winner in a while I'm checking behind on this flop unless this guy is folding everything short of a set.

pokerjoker · #7 08-04-2005, 04:32 AM

I liked the play here

kongo_totte · #8 08-04-2005, 10:12 AM

He shows 7 7, as some of you have guessed.