Good spot for a river overcall?

Hey guys,

pretty loose 5/10 6 handed game, but you wouldnt know it from this hand. fairly tight opponent opens UTG+1 (tight by 5/10 standards, not mousish or anything. he's still > 20 VP$IP if I had to guess). and I three bet on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. kind of too loose and kind of too passive BB calls, tight player calls.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
they check to me, I bet, they both call

Turn is like the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or some other innocuous card
they check to me, I bet, they both call

River is the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or some other random crap
BB checks and now the tight player leads out. get BB's overcall? I think a raise is spewing.

[DCWGaming]

Uh..my theory is...

If you raise, the kid who lead out is going to call, and the other guy might call 2 cold if he's dumb. So you're pretty much guaranteed 2 bets with an ok chance at 2 more.

If you flat call, you get 1 bet and a slightly better chance at 1 more.

And maybe 5% of the time the guy has you beat.

I raise here every time.

[JrJordan]

Easy raise. 95% of the time you're ahead of the donk bettor. Raising will guarantee 2BB, and maybe 4BB if the BB by chance wants to call 2 cold.

And raising a donk bettor on the river with top two isn't spewing.

Good because I lied.

River is the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or some other random crap
BB checks and now the tightish player leads out and I raise. BB 3-bets, tightish player calls and I really want to fold but just can't do it so I call.

how'd I do?

[JrJordan]

I count getting 15.5:1 on the river crying call. Gotta make it with top 2. If he slowplayed some godawful set then he saved you a lot of money by not acting sooner. Next hand.