Qc on an all club flop

[eMarkM]

Loose, live 4/8 game, 7 handed.

I'm in BB with Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]. Everyone limps in and CO player who's half way decent raised. Button calls, SB calls, I call.

Flop comes 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]

I have a draw to the non-nut flush and weak overcards. SB checks, I check, it's checked around to MP player who's been in far too many hands and he bets. He's been caught speeding several times betting into scary boards so his bet could mean anything. Folded around to me and I call. UTG calls.

Turn comes 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] , giving me top pair. Checked around to MP bettor who bets. Now I check raise. UTG, who has been playing decently calls two cold. I think he has the Ac. I was right about MP as he now thinks and folds to my c/r.

River is a blank, I check, UTG checks. Results later, comments on all steets welcome.

[anatta]

Everyone took the flop so the chances of being up against Ac or Kc is quite large. On the other hand, it was folded around to you after MP bet the flop, and the pot was quite big, so if there is a time to take one off with the Qc, its here. Good check raise, you're probably ahead and want to charge the bigger draws. Nice hand.

[ZManODS]

"Turn comes 10 , giving me top pair. Checked around to MP bettor who bets. Now I check raise."

Very nice play. If a club comes on the river you can safely check/fold. With 7 people in to see the flop there is a very good chance someone is holding a Kc or Ac. You really shouldnt fear a pat flush because you would have been re-raised. My guess is your QT took the pot.

"River is a blank, I check"

Also very good. No point in betting because your oppenent would most likely only call if he had you beat already (JJ, QQ, KK, AA) but no reason to believe he has that. Im assumming you plan to call if he bets (which you should). Also by checking you could possibly induce a bet by a worst hand.

[Homer]

Preflop: QTo sucks, but you are getting 13:1 (unless your opponents are prone to limp-reraising) so a call seems to be in order.

Flop: Normally I would only call with the K or A, but with it being folded around to you and the bettor being suspect, I would call as you did.

Turn: Nice play. Try to eliminate the K or A of clubs and get it heads-up with the speeder, or at least force UTG to call two bets cold with his draw.

River: Good check. UTG either has nothing (most likely) or the nut flush (not very likely). Too bad you weren't able to induce a bluff, but at least you took the pot down.

-- Homer

[eMarkM]

Like Homer said, I also hate QT, but the pot odds were there to flop something big.

I thought my flop call was a bit suspect, but the other guy was so poor I thought I still had a shot with the Q or even hitting an overcard. Had someone behind me c/r I likely would have folded right there.

The turn c/r was the key since I was relieved when the guy betting folded and the hand was defined when UTG cold called. I knew the flush draw was no good for me then and my TT had to stand up.

The river is the classic "only get called by a hand that beats you", and my hand was good. Though in reality I had a value bet. I asked if he had the Ac and he said he did, but I was shocked when he told me he had a 9. Had he c/r the flop or showed some aggression somewhere, I likely would have folded earlier. If he's to be believed, he was incredibly passive for top pair, nut flush draw.

[RockLobster]

The river is the classic "only get called by a hand that beats you", and my hand was good.

This is a situation that I still lose money on, meaning that I sometimes bet when I'd only get called by a better hand (hoping for a fold). I could really use help with identifying these situations... any thoughts that might help me out?

[JTG51]

I'm not aiming this question specifically at Homer, I hope others will answer also. I'm not really asking abou this specific situation even, it just illustrates a general idea.

You said, "Try to eliminate the K or A of clubs and get it heads-up with the speeder, or at least force UTG to call two bets cold with his draw."

I agree that the check raise was good, but trying to fold the A or K of clubs seems like a bad reason. Obviously that would be a great thing, but is it ever going to happen? I know there are other reasons, I'm just curious about that specific idea. It seems similar to trying to move someone off of an overpair. It's a nice thought, but it's going to happen so rarely that it's not really worth thinking about.

I only ask because I hear people say "raise to try to eliminate a single big flush card" all the time. Am I missing something here?

[Homer]

Maybe it's just wishful thinking that someone will actually fold? [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

Basically you are charging someone who is drawing more to do so, and if they incorrectly fold that's gravy. If you just call you don't give him a chance to make a mistake by folding. If you just call you don't charge him more to draw when you have the best hand.

I don't think I answered your question, because I know that you already know everything I said. [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img]

-- Homer

[JTG51]

I don't think I answered your question...

That's OK, I'm not sure that I actually asked a question anyway.

...because I know that you already know everything I said.

I'll let it slide this one time since I learn something from almost every other post you make. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

I guess my point is that I think this kind of play should be seen as a value raise instead of an attempt to make someone fold. You don't mind if he folds, but you are making money on every dollar he puts into the pot.

[Homer]

General Comments:

Yes, you are making money when BB coldcalls, but he is also making money. Thus, it would be a mistake for him to fold, so logically you want him to fold. I'm kind of confused, so let's take a look at two possible outcomes, starting with action on the BB following your turn raise. I'm making some assumptions, so there is definitely room for argument, but it should be interesting nonetheless.

Situation:

Board: 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

Pot Size: 5 BB's after flop betting round

You: Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] T [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Opponent 1: A [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] x [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Opponent 2: 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] x [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Opponent 2 has four outs on the river to improve to two-pair or trips (without a four-flush being on board). Opponent 1 has eleven outs to improve to the best hand, eight to the nut flush and three to a pair of aces. I'll assume that when Opponent 1 improves to aces he will check it through for fear of a better hand. When he improves to the nut flush, he will bet and you will fold. When Opponent 2 catches one of his four outs, he will bet, you will call (or you will bet and he will call/raise...if he raises, you will fold) and BB will fold.


Possible Outcomes:

1) Opponent 1 coldcalls, Opponent 2 calls, 11 BB's in pot.

Your EV:

4/44 -> -1 BB
11/44 -> 0 BB
30/44 -> +11 BB

EV = 7.41 BB


EV of Opponent 1:

11/44 -> +11 BB
33/44 -> -2 BB

EV = 1.25 BB


EV of Opponent 2:

40/44 -> -1 BB
4/44 -> +12 BB

EV = .182 BB


2) Opponent 1 folds and Opponent 2 calls, 9 BB's in pot.

Your EV:

4/44 -> -1 BB
40/44 -> +9 BB

EV = 8.09 BB


EV of Opponent 1:

EV = 0 BB


EV of Opponent 2:

40/44 -> -1 BB
4/44 -> +12 BB

EV = .182 BB


Thus, it seems that we would prefer that BB fold his nut flush draw, rather than coldcall, because our EV will be greater if he is not in the hand. If he stays in the hand, our EV will decrease and his will increase.

My brain is not functioning very well right now, so this could be complete BS.

-- Homer