River raise with AA

wheelz · #1 07-30-2005, 10:33 PM

Villain is fairly passive post and preflop. He doesn't bluff, and never raises the flop. He'll call or fold, then either check-fold the turn if is hand isn't that good, check-raise if it is, and check-call if he's on a draw. I've been pounding on him lately and he seems to be getting a little bit more aggro

Online 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, folding to a 3-bet?

krishanleong · #2 07-30-2005, 11:29 PM

Raising and folding to a 3-bet isn't bad. I think calling may be better. Raising and folding to a 3-bet means you have to be ahead 50%. I'm not sure you are.

Krishan

wheelz · #3 07-31-2005, 01:18 PM

Well, I KNOW he has one of 2 hands, Jx or 9x. He'd play them both the same way. But there's more combos of J's than 9's, so does that make me ahead 50%?

krishanleong · #4 07-31-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I KNOW he has one of 2 hands, Jx or 9x. He'd play them both the same way. But there's more combos of J's than 9's, so does that make me ahead 50%?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure this works. I think he's much more likely to cr the turn with a 9 that a J.

Krishan

Wynton · #5 07-31-2005, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I KNOW he has one of 2 hands, Jx or 9x. He'd play them both the same way. But there's more combos of J's than 9's, so does that make me ahead 50%?

[/ QUOTE ]

How about Qs and Ks? You said he's very passive and you've been ponding on him a lot, so maybe he had one of those hands and decided not to reraise pf, just to trap you?

krishanleong · #6 07-31-2005, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I KNOW he has one of 2 hands, Jx or 9x. He'd play them both the same way. But there's more combos of J's than 9's, so does that make me ahead 50%?

[/ QUOTE ]

How about Qs and Ks? You said he's very passive and you've been ponding on him a lot, so maybe he had one of those hands and decided not to reraise pf, just to trap you?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a baysian sense, these hands don't comprise enough of his hands to be worth consideration.

Krishan

MisterKing · #7 07-31-2005, 01:41 PM

Is 3-betting the turn just not a good option? How reliable is your read that he doesn't raise draws? For many opponents I see (granted we're talking 3/6 and 5/10 short) will C/R if they have a spade draw and just paired their 6s, or picked up an "extra" OESD (7s8s) or gutter (Ts7s or 5s7s). Likewise, I think a lot of AJ/KJ type hands might do this to you figuring that they're somehow ahead.

My point is this: at least SOME of the time, villain will be drawing, and if you want extra raises to go in the pot, why not make them before the final card comes out? By putting the very same raise in on 4th street, you can sometimes get SB to check to you on the river, where you then have the option of betting or checking through. Other times, he'll cap the turn and you'll have a better idea if you want to call, fold, or raise (yuck!) his river bet.

My point isn't that you should somehow be lame and make the hand easier to play -- it is that you can get the same number of bets in via a manner that makes better use of position, and also gets you to a showdown more often, which I think is a must with your holding.

krishanleong · #8 07-31-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

My point is this: at least SOME of the time, villain will be drawing, and if you want extra raises to go in the pot, why not make them before the final card comes out? By putting the very same raise in on 4th street, you can sometimes get SB to check to you on the river, where you then have the option of betting or checking through. Other times, he'll cap the turn and you'll have a better idea if you want to call, fold, or raise (yuck!) his river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Hero wants to put 5 bets in. This means he has to fold to the turn cap. This means he is giving up his 2 out equity. Once in a while 99 will freeze up on the river when he raises and not 3-bet.

In most cases 3-betting the turn is better. This is one of the exceptions.

Krishan

wheelz · #9 07-31-2005, 01:48 PM

I agree that he's more likely to cr the turn with a 9, but after 100 hands or so (probably 75 of them heads up) he hasn't check-raised a flop yet, he waits till the turn with any good hand. I've been just betting the whole way most of these hands and taking the pot down, so like I said, he's getting a bit more aggressive, and I don't expect him to just check-call me down with a J.

If we actually knew for sure though that he was equally likely to cr the turn with either a J or a 9, then this river line is clearly best, right?

krishanleong · #10 07-31-2005, 01:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If we actually knew for sure though that he was equally likely to cr the turn with either a J or a 9, then this river line is clearly best, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. And with the extra read info that he would play a J or a 9 like this I like it.

Krishan