72s all in pre flop in the 350k gauranteed

girgy44 · #1 07-31-2005, 07:16 PM

So I busted out with 72s when I went all in preflop, but I think it was the right play(maybe one of the fishiest things ever said on 2p2?) Anyway, I had 1650 in chips after posting 300 for my big blind. There were 4 limpers and the small blind completed. I pushed, 33(the 2nd limper) over pushed and his hand held up. Despite the results I think that this was the play. FWIW I normally play 10/20 6 max and have only played in 100 or so MTTs.

jaym96822 · #2 07-31-2005, 07:22 PM

You sure about that? Last to act needs to call 1650 to win 3450 assuming all others fold.

MegaBet · #3 07-31-2005, 07:32 PM

Bad move. You will get at least 1 caller.

betgo · #4 07-31-2005, 07:35 PM

I agree. I don't like this. The push is only about the size of the pot. No one will put you on 72, but a short stacked push at limpers from the BB is suspect. If you had a better hand this might be OK this late in this level of tournament, since even if you didn't pick up the pot, you might wind up heads up with pot odds. I wouldn't try this with calling station loose passive limpers, as they will proabably all call you.

ekky · #5 07-31-2005, 08:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Despite the results I think that this was the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you think you will win the pot uncontested, given that there are 5 limpers (including the SB) and then you have yur 300 in.. and then put another 1650 on top.

this makes the pot 1800 + 1650= 3450 and its 1650 for someone to call.

3450:1650 == 2.09/1... or as an equity position, they need to have 32.3% equity to justify a call.

Now, your position counts for something here, in that the EP limpers might be a little scared to call, fearing a raise behind... but the math dictates that about 90% of the time (in my estimate) you are going to get a call, from one of the many limpers.

First of all, assumptions:

1) we will get called by one person only.
2) when we do get called, we will have about a 30% chance of winning the pot.

When you move all in.. you will win the 300*6 (1800) in the pot 10% of the time.

when you get called... you win 30% * (5100) = 1530, and since you put in 1950.. thats -420 chips. (1530-1950)

So... EV works out at:

(0.10*1800)-(0.9*420)= -198 chips.

If you had a larger stack, then the move would probably be +EV, but in this case, it was probably a little too adventurous.

(my assumptions might well be incorrect, but on first glance they seem ok)