10/20 6max: river decision - A8s

[Surfbullet]

MP is a 34/28/3 over 71 hands. Quite LAG preflop.
UTG is 38/15/1.5 over 34 hands. No reads, this player had just sat down at the time.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero...

Surf

[TMFS9]

My gut says fold. But since being at 10/20 I probably haven't gone to the showdown enough. I just's calling 2 cold on the flop announces a good bit of strength on a fairly drawless flop. Although splitting is a possibility, I think you might see a set here more often than not. I think it's really close though.

[JrJordan]

Borderline PF cold call, but it looks ok.

Flop and turn are fine obviously. I don't see how you're ahead 10% of the time on this river though. 2bet flop cold call and turn raise is yelling monster. With MP in the pot as well on the turn, there's a smaller chance he's bluffing. I'd muck it on the river.

[ISF]

Looks like I am in the minority, but if there are draws on the board that missed and its heads up I cant see folding this in a 10+bb pot for one bet. I think this is a pretty easy call sans strong read. These idiots love to slow play top pair and raise the turn no matter what, so he could easily have a weaker 8 in addition to one of the many busted draws out there, random pairs, or random bluffs.

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Looks like I am in the minority, but if there are draws on the board that missed and its heads up I cant see folding this in a 10+bb pot for one bet.

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I agree with this statement. Also, by checking the river you indicate that you might have been on a draw and have invited a bluff bet. That being said, UTG's betting is consistent with a T (possibly JTo, QTo, or KTo as he did CC pf). If I were UTG and on a draw I would go for the overcall, not the raise as UTG did. You cannot be 90% sure how UTG would play a flush and/or gutshot draw so calling the turn and c/c the river seems right.

[NLSoldier]

I'm definately calling the river.

edit because i missed the utg limper.

[tongni]

I don't see how you can consider folding.

[SteveGriff]

Play smells of being an a ten or an overpair - I dont think you're ahead enough here.

Steve Griff

[Perseus]

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I don't see how you can consider folding.

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