I know i should fold this river but i just can't do it

lufbradolly · #1 07-27-2005, 07:14 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (3.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Villain seems quite loose, seen him turn over a couple of suited holdings. Is there any way i can make this river call? Is this the sort of hand i should get into the habit of being ready to fold?

BatsShadow · #2 07-27-2005, 07:20 AM

Why would he 3bet the flop with a flush draw? The river looks more like a bluff to me. I would call.

lufbradolly · #3 07-27-2005, 07:25 AM

But he checked the turn, doesnt that scream flush draw to you?

BatsShadow · #4 07-27-2005, 07:31 AM

If he is smart enough to push the flop and check the turn with a flush draw, then he should be smart enough to realize that he doesn't have the equity to go crazy with a flush draw because there are only 3 players. It doesn't make sense.

I gotta go to work.

lufbradolly · #5 07-27-2005, 07:42 AM

with the nut flush draw you win close to 35% of the time and ive gone mental a few times with it before in a 3 way pot. I'm not trying to beargumentative i get your point. I just find it hard to believe that im good here often enought to call with the way the villain played the hand.

Obviously the way im ranting the villain did have a flush but i'm trying not to be results orientated (honestly :-)).

I just sometimes worry that im going into call down mode to easily instead of making the occasional good laydown.

@bsolute_luck · #6 07-27-2005, 07:49 AM

raise preflop.

the river can only be decided based on the flop play which is based on reads. w/o those, you could fold the winning hand or you could call with the losing one.

others can talk about % of times you need to catch a bluff to make this call profitable based on pot size. i play based on my reads, so if i have a good read that BB is aggressive with flush draws, then i fold w/o a second thought.

if i have doubts, then i'll call due to pot size. if i lose, it is 1BB and i'll win that back later because i played the rest of the hand correctly and he happened to suck out on me this time.

#7 07-27-2005, 09:16 AM

The Real problem here is your read, but I have also seen some really dumb players cap flush draws to my sets 2 handed and beat me too. He prob has the flush but note here that you have TPMK, which is no prize possession with this maniac, the fact that he is loose makes it some sort of possibility that he has a real ungly 2 pr, or even AQ and was toying with you. I would prob pay him off here with a call, but use it for informational purposes.

Loose and dumb players like this are very capable of bluffing and you only need to catch him 1/12 for it to be break even.

call and remember what happened, if he did this with a flush draw, wait for a big hand you can be sure of (AQ or a set in this case) and make him pay a mint to try to catch his flush card.

imported_The Vibesman · #8 07-27-2005, 09:26 AM

This play is largely based on reads, I think. W/o reads, I will usually err on the side of caution and make the call, which is not as big a mistake as folding the best hand would be. You are correct in that many micros players will play the flush draw like this though.

2+2 Junkie · #9 07-27-2005, 09:31 AM

I think that you should raise preflop. I think the hand might play differently after that (BB would have to call your raise with only 3 people in the hand with his crap, might happen, but makes his play -ev, which is good for us).

I really think more often than not we are beat here. I would fold. He 3-bet the flop, but just checked and called the turn. Then he wakes up on the river when the 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes out. I would probably fold.

Dave G. · #10 07-27-2005, 09:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he is smart enough to push the flop and check the turn with a flush draw, then he should be smart enough to realize that he doesn't have the equity to go crazy with a flush draw because there are only 3 players. It doesn't make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense to me. Your odds of making the flush from the flop to the river are 1.8:1. He's got 2 callers, so he's getting 2:1 for his money (as long as people keep calling). This is +EV until one of them folds. Perhaps he had a read that the CO would not fold to a flop 3-bet.

Either way, his play is not as bad as you make it out to be, in fact it's spot on. And this has to be the most obvious flush draw ever, I'm not calling the river.