valuebet?

dark_horse · #1 07-26-2005, 08:52 PM

waste of post?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2. CO posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB raises, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls.

River: (11 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero..

Harv72b · #2 07-26-2005, 08:57 PM

I'd bet it. Even if he hit the river Q, that's a tough spot to c/r with the paired board. I don't think he goes into calldown mode this quickly with a pocket pair TT or better, so you're really only worried about AQ or KQ. On the other hand, he might call with AK or even 66-88 (some players would raise with those hands behind two posters, even OOP) if he suspects you of just overplaying a flush draw.

lil' · #3 07-26-2005, 09:24 PM

Easy bet and fold to a raise. You have no reason to fear a Q.

dark_horse · #4 07-26-2005, 09:46 PM

now this is a valuebet. (obviously folding to a c/r)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB folds, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Nick C · #5 07-27-2005, 01:05 AM

Against an unknown, I agree with Harv and lil' that you should probably bet.

Such a bet does rely on getting called by ace-high a fair amount of the time, though, so I do think a read could change things.

As an example, let's say SB will play all of the following hands the way he's played this one up until now:

AK = 12 combos
AJ = 12 combos
88 = 6 combos
77 = 6 combos
66 = 6 combos

AQ = 9 combos
KQ = 12 combos
QJs = 3 combos
QTs = 3 combos

KJs = 4 combos
KTs = 4 combos
JTs = 4 combos

In this range, you're beating 42 combos that might call you. You're losing to 27 combos that will at least call you. And you're beating 12 combos that will hardly ever call.

Let's say Villain will call 30 out of 42 times with the first set of combos. And let's say he'll always checkraise with any of the 27 combos that beat you. (He won't do so that often, but I'm leading up to something.) And let's say that one of the remaining 24 times you have him beat, he'll checkraise, and he'll just fold the 23 other times.

That's not optimum bluffing frequency, under these particular circumstances, but it is enough that you couldn't bet-fold profitably. Bet-folding would cost you 9 BB's compared to checking behind for the 81 hands in question. (And bet-calling would be even worse, versus such high checkraising frequency with queens up and a relatively small checkraise-bluffing frequency. On the other hand, if SB loved to checkraise bluff and you knew it, you could bet-call profitably -- especially if, in addition to loving to bluff checkraise, Villain would often just call with queens up.)

Anyway, Villain's preflop range is something to take into consideration, as is his tendency to checkraise bluff or not to checkraise bluff. And a big consideration is how often you think he'll call with ace-high.

What I'm saying is, I don't think this is a bet against everyone. I think it is against most 2/4 unknowns, though. I think the unknown will have (and call with) AK a fair amount of the time. And I don't think he'll have a hand with a queen in it as often as he would if he were raising all the hands in the rather wide range I gave above. He probably won't have 88-66 as often either, but I think he'll call with AK often enough to make up for this. (And I think he will have 88 more often than, say, KQ, despite what the combos alone tell us.)