My Big Losing Hand

Student · #1 07-21-2005, 09:37 PM

On 7-16-05 I placed onto 2+2, in the Beginner's Forum, my post "A Welcome Metamorphosis?". It told how I've been fighting to figure out poker for 4 months, and my realization that I might have found the piece to the puzzle, which had somehow gotten kicked under the couch! On 7-16 I started the day with $34.12, and ended it with $37.10. That doesn't sound like a big deal, but realize this was .01/.02 NL HE (BB is 2 shiny pennies), and the $2.98 gain amounted to a whopping 149 BBs, played over a total of 102 hands. I believed I'd reached escape velocity, after 4 months of hard work!

It would have been even better, but I lost $1.08 on hand #100 that day! I'm sure being tired had something to do with this experience, since that was alot of hands for me in a single day. Here is that hand:
_______________________________________

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($1.92)
Button [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]Villain2)/ ($0.72)
SB ($2.58)
BB ($4.45)
UTG [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]Villain)/ ($1.08)
Hero ($1.48)
MP1 ($5.59)
MP2 ($2.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]Villain)/ calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, 3 folds, Button [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]Villain2)/ raises to $0.08, 2 folds, UTG [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]Villain)/ calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.06.

Flop: ($0.27) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.1, Villain2 folds, Villain raises to $1, Hero calls $0.90.

Turn: ($2.27) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($2.27) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $2.27

Results in white below: 
Villain has Qs As (flush, ace high).
Hero has Jh Kc (high card, king).
Outcome: Villain wins $2.27. 
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Obviously KJu is one of the most dangerous hands in NL HE, and is the subject for many stories in books, articles and 2+2 posts. I've seen folks say they planned on folding it everytime and everyplace they saw it! But I played it, and lived to regret the decision.

There was merit to some of my play. I used PokerTracker today, after a very nice fellow told me how to apply PT to my application. I was able to load hands into PT for 7-16 to date, all hands played by me since I had my 'rebirth,' so to speak! I quickly found my worst hand using PT, and I used the hand replayer on PT to examine carefully how I came to lose $1.08 on this hand.

My first mistake was to go into the hand after a preflop raise by Villain2 (right?). Not only did Villain2 jump betting from 2 cents to 8 cents (up 3 BBs), but then Villain called him (cold call of a preflop raise - turned out Villain had the cards to do that!).

After the flop I raised 10 cents. I did it because I had an open-ended straight 10 thru K, and I was blinded to the possibility that someone might have a 4-flush draw after this flop! This raise pushed Villain2 out of the hand, so ostensibly I'd protected my hand with a nice result. But then the other shoe in a check/raise happened, one in which I was the object! Villain bet $1.00 all-in, and I foolishly called him. I say foolishly, because I don't even recall wondering about the possibility of the 4-flush. Obviously I need to work much harder at identifying the nut hands during play, something I give scant attention to!

But my analysis is that of a beginner! I will very much appreciate your critique of this hand, and also my attempts at understanding what happened. Thanks in advance!

Dave

Pov · #2 07-21-2005, 10:01 PM

Your gravest mistake on this hand was on the flop when you called that c/r. You can argue all day about whether KJo should be played from here or there or anywhere, but that's definitely not your problem on this particular hand.

Flop: ($0.27) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.1, Villain2 folds, Villain raises to $1, Hero calls $0.90.

The pot is $1.37 and you put in $0.90 to call it. Those are odds of about 1.5:1 to a hand that could easily then lose to a flush draw or re-draw. Even if we say there is no flush draw, your open ender still needs better than 2:1 to call with its 8 outs. Even if hitting a King will also win for you your 11 outs need 1.4:1. So in other words you barely have the odds to call in a perfect world.

You MUST learn to fold this here.

(The say no to KJ campaign is because of domination when you flop a King against someone else playing AK or KQ - here you were on a draw - totally different)

KenProspero · #3 07-21-2005, 10:16 PM

I'm not much of an expert, but .....

Your 10c bet on the turn ... you have an open end straight draw, with a possible flush draw on the board. I don't think betting is terrible if you intend it as a semi-bluff though if you're going to do this with 27c in the pot, you probably should bet more -- maybe 20c maybe a bit more, even so that a straight draw or a flush draw doesn't have the right pot odds. However, IMO, this kind of bluff really isn't going to work too often in a 1c 2c game (maybe a bigger bluff, say 50c, but even then, bluffing at this level is usually -ev). Certainly your 10c bet had little chance of sucess

As to the raise to $1.00 by villian You have to fold. Let's forget about the flush draw for the moment, What does Villian hold -- certainly a queen and a high card at least (QA, for example), but more likely, QT for two pair. even with a possible 11 outs, you're just not getting the odds to call. Fold here. BTW, though failing to recognize a flush draw isn't good, it's a fold even if there's no possible flush.

Student · #4 07-21-2005, 11:38 PM

I knew someone would have a different angle on this hand! You're right, I'd completely ignored pot odds here, and I suspect that's a leakage for me generally!

Thanks...

Dave

PS: Your point about domination vs drawing is also a good one, and an important factor relating to my KJu.

Student · #5 07-21-2005, 11:45 PM

Well, you've given me plenty to cogitate about! Thankfully I'm an old codger, so it should work out pretty well.

Thanks. I'll definitely be doing quite a bit of thinking about your observations. It's a bit much for me at the moment, but I'm sure it's worth working on...

Dave

Pov · #6 07-22-2005, 03:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think betting is terrible if you intend it as a semi-bluff though if you're going to do this with 27c in the pot, you probably should bet more -- maybe 20c maybe a bit more, even so that a straight draw or a flush draw doesn't have the right pot odds. However, IMO, this kind of bluff really isn't going to work too often in a 1c 2c game (maybe a bigger bluff, say 50c, but even then, bluffing at this level is usually -ev). Certainly your 10c bet had little chance of sucess

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't comment on this part simply because I felt the neglect to pot odds on the following call was so important, but this is a very good point as well.

If you're going to bet you probably need to do it like you've got the hand you're representing. Put yourself in this exact situation up to the point you make your $0.10 bet and pretend you hold AQ (not with the flush draw though) or even KQ or heck the QT. How much would you bet? With the possible straight draw and the two spades you would certainly want to bet more than $0.10 to force those very possible draws to make a bad call. A $0.20 bet would be a much better choice.

Of course as is pointed out, at this limit people who would call $0.10 will probably also call $0.20 but the difference is if your opponent had just the flush draw and an overcard (let's say As5s instead of having the pair of Q's also) he would be relying on implied odds to make a profitable call when you bet $0.20 assuming you would bet a non-spade turn as well. The $0.10 call would be a no-brainer with any implied odds at all. You'd prefer your opponent to make a mistake when he/she calls.

In this case you're actually semi-bluffing so you would probably take a free card on the turn assuming it was the player before you and not after you that called unless it was an A, 9 or maybe a K [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but your opponent will have to assume you'll bet again on the turn most of the time.

As a final note I'll say you were up against a monster and had no way of knowing it - probably even going all-in yourself first with a made hand would not have scared this hand away. Top pair, top kicker with the nut flush draw and two cards to come isn't foldable by very many players.

Mooski · #7 07-22-2005, 06:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As a final note I'll say you were up against a monster and had no way of knowing it - probably even going all-in yourself first with a made hand would not have scared this hand away. Top pair, top kicker with the nut flush draw and two cards to come isn't foldable by very many players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. And if the OP was in his position, I'm sure he'd feel the same way. Is this correct, Dave?

My take on this is that the bet you made on the flop was fine, you're showing strength to try and get marginal hands out and seeing exactly where you are in comparison to those left in. I would say that the huge bet by the villain tells you exactly this: you're behind, by a lot, so a fold is the correct play. However, by seeing this hand through, at least you have learned the hard way and hopefully you will be able to spot that flush draw now.

Nice post, Dave, I always read your posts as I think that as we are playing similar levels, I can understand where you are coming from.

Student · #8 07-22-2005, 10:42 AM

I must admit, and I suppose I made that clear, that I didn't understand the post by KenProspero, but I thought with some work I could learn from his valuable post. Your remarks make his much more understandable, and as usual I very much appreciate the time you've taken, and inherent good-will intention that lies behind it!

I'm a lucky guy!

Dave

PS: Wasn't the 10 cents bet I initiated useful, since it kicked Villain2 out of the hand? Cheap and effective, eh?

Student · #9 07-22-2005, 10:54 AM

You and I are on the same wavelength, and that's for sure! But we both have to graduate to the higher wavelength, and the sooner we do it the more profitable our game will be.

Frankly, I'm in a hurry! That's why I work so hard. I'm starting to understand that my goal of being a successful tournament player is achievable. Maybe not at the TV level, but at levels that will obtain my goals in terms of having an income from poker.

Lastly, importantly one of the nicknames my wife has for me is "Moose." She would like your alias!

Dave

PS: If I'd have had his hand I would have played it more aggressively than he did, simply because I haven't taken the check-raise strategy into my bag of tricks, yet. All things in time... Briefly, my answer is "Yes!".

PPS: At first I was feeling a bit picked upon by the post by KenProspero. It's because "knowledge makes a bloody entrance," I'm thinking. But now I'm feeling very good about having posted my hand, because my true objective is to learn poker. Encouragement of me to post hands has been constant on the 2+2 Beginner's Forum! I intend to do some more of it, because we all get educated in the process. I had thought it was selfish of me to post these hands, but now I see it differently. Thanks Ken!

RJT · #10 07-22-2005, 12:41 PM

I am still learning myself, but some thoughts I have. Hopefully others will confirm or correct me.

No idea why villain utg didn't raise pre-flop with AQs, I would have. Correct?

But, that is beside the point. I think if you are going to play this hand from utg+1 you need to raise going in - to narrow the field. KJo plays better against less opponents is my understanding. If you spike a K or J you have a decent kicker for either. (Assumes no other scare cards, like st or flush draws - in that situation - others have and can elaborate.)A raise might get an ace with a bad kicker out pre-flop in case an ace would hit the board.