yea

[1800GAMBLER]

I don't do this [censored] regulary and probably should just stop because of the high emotional variance this play has, heh. I'm not sure if i wouldn't play it the same again.

$2knlhe. loose regular in EP limps. i limp the button with tjo, didn't feel like raising. very regular player who i think also plays stars makes it $100 in the BB, i decide he'd do this with enough junk that my pair + resteal postflop equity here is good enough.

<font color="blue"> Flop: 24s5s none my suit. Pot: $240. </font>

he bets $180, i get ready to min raise him off any overcards + junk he may be holding then decide to delay bluff since the risk will only be slightly more yet this time i get my pairing outs, the flush scare cards and a bluff which is a bit more believable. I call.

<font color="blue"> turn: 5o. Pot: 600 </font>

He checks. I think about the amount to bet and decide $300 is enough to get him off his overcards and everything above is pointless as he is never folding an overpair here. I should give some weight to As,xs xs,xs but a mixture of 1. small amount of comobs and 2. i'm not tottaly sure if he would fold that for $600 either. So $300 it is. He quickly calls. With the speed that smells of a no decision drawing hand.

<font color="blue"> River: 6o. $1000 </font>

He checks.

Well i can't check and let As,xs win a $1000 pot vs my jack high. Given the somewhat scare card completing my possible 33 holding and i have possible holdings of 22 44 A5s that are beating his none convinced overpair i feel like potting it for $1000 is cool.

Anyone else even bother with these plays or is it just me? Like i said i don't do these often and i control my image well but in hindsight i don't like the river play, it's a very delicate play that needs the exact perfect conditions and given that i am even unsure about if he'd fold a flush draw on the turn for 2:1 i shouldn't be this river bliff. I think just making it $400 was enough, since he should hold and fold a flush draw higher than J high enough to justify that. I think the flop and turn combo bluff is fine.

[chuddo]

just estimate the hands villain would call a pot sized river bet with after his actions thus far. and then the likelihood of him holding one.

if it is less than 1/2 the time, move it in. it feels good picking up a 1k pot on a stone river bluff.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
just estimate the hands villain would call a pot sized river bet with after his actions thus far. and then the likelihood of him holding one.

if it is less than 1/2 the time, move it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, i know. The math will come down to he holds an overpair more than 50%. The figures are probably something like 2/3 overpair 1/3 flush draw, so the uncertainty comes in if he will fold it or not.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
t feels good picking up a 1k pot on a stone river bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[chuddo]

to answer your initial question, yes i do bother with plays like these.

with the exact hand described, with no real read, i would guess the play is probably +ev.

and if picked off, well getting called and showing down a huge bluff can do wonders for image. it is fun getting called down by 2nd-pair for an entire stack.

[KaneKungFu123]

i get into these situations but usually end up regretting it.

[creedofhubris]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and question the preflop call. Calling $90 pretty much on the basis of position alone seems a little arrogant.

Then again, it might be because there are a few tricky mofos who bother me to no end by consistently doing exactly this and making these complicated plays at me.

(On the river, your bluff seems too big. All you need to do is fold Ax, so a "value bet" of $600 should be enough.)