Flush draw, Pot Equity?

[dcarlc]

PP 3/6 10 Handed

3 folds to MP, He raises, LMP calls, HiJack calls, 2 folds, Hero SB K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]calls, BB calls. 10 SB's

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check(I hope BB bets), BB checks, MP checks, LMP bets, Hi Jack calls, I raise, BB folds, MP folds, call, call. 8BB's

Turn:3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Now at this point let me add that the remaining 2 opponents are loose and passive. I am new to Pot Equity. With 8BB's already in the pot and all the outs that I have(Maybe all 15?),I should lead the turn on this draw? If I was to get raised in this spot there would be a minimum of 11 BB's in. If that happened would I want to 3 bet with 7 clean out?

[dcarlc]

anybody?

[W. Deranged]

DcarlC...

You are making a very important mistake in your thinking that many players make when new to 2+2 logic. There are really two kinds of "equity" calculations that you need to look at:

1. "Should I Be Involved in the Pot": When looking at hands that may or may not be good, hands which have live draws, or hands which you might try to bluff with, what you need to look at is the likelihood that your hand will be the best at the river compared to the ratio of the money you MUST put into the pot in order to continue participating.

Example: You have 5 outs to two-pair/set with middle pair on the turn and you are pretty confident all these outs are clean, and there are 11 BB in the pot. Your opponent bets into you. You calculate that you have a 5/46 or 9.2 to 1 chance of improving to a winner. Since you are getting 11 to 1 from the pot, you determine it is correct to call.

Note, if you don't think there is any chance your hand is already good or that your opponent will fold a better hand, you SHOULD NOT RAISE. The fact that you are getting correct "pot odds" does not mean your hand has enough value to raise, because, in fact, you will be losing $.89 on every dollar you put in.

2. "Should I Get More Money In": When you have a hand that is pretty likely to be the best or that may have a better-than-average chance of winning at the river, you need to consider whether or not to voluntarily put more money into the pot.

Example: You determine on the river your hand will be good 60% of the time. You value bet.

Example #2: With the nut flush draw and overcards on the flop, you raise after one player bets and another calls, because you realize that you will win more than 33% of the time, and hence are making money for every 2 bets your opponents put in.

[Octopus]

The size of the pot does not determine whether you want to raise for value, at least not directly. If you are 27% to win (which is my best guess if this gets raised behind you here), then every bet that goes into the pot costs you money. This is true regardless of the size of the pot. (I say not directly because players will call with less in bigger pots because of the possibility of a bluff or a long-shot draw. That does not really apply here.)

I bet the turn because of the possibility of getting both players to fold right here. (It needs to happen less than 10% of the time for this bet to be profitable.) I do not 3-bet.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
(I hope BB bets)

[/ QUOTE ]

So?