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#1
07-23-2005, 03:15 AM
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-EV a profitable situation?
Hey guys
OK, this hand comes from tonight's super with 45 players left. I've got two big stacks situatated on my immediate left, meaning I hardly ever get to steal. I've got about average stack with 22k. ***** Hand History for Game 2408900321 ***** NL Texas Hold'em Trny:14168654 Level:14 Blinds (1000/2000) - Saturday, July 23, 02:41:30 EDT 2005 Table Friday Special(394235) Table #2 (Real Money) Seat 5 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 1: mrn74 ( $9650 ) Seat 2: jpnow ( $15394 ) Seat 4: RagingDeuces ( $22364 ) Seat 6: CivicHtchGSR ( $29494 ) Seat 3: jrwizzle ( $9134 ) Seat 7: sweetdjam ( $13140 ) Seat 10: RoadKillJr ( $6520 ) Seat 5: UFOFORFUN ( $34906 ) Seat 8: stoopidmutha ( $8286 ) Trny:14168654 Level:14 Blinds (1000/2000) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to RagingDeuces [ As 8d ] stoopidmutha folds. RoadKillJr folds. mrn74 folds. jpnow folds. jrwizzle folds. RagingDeuces raises [7000]. UFOFORFUN raises [20000]. Ok, so here I've got a decision. I put my opponent on anything from A2-AK, any pocket pair, or maybe even a possible resteal with less than that (looks like a perfect opportunity for him to be restealing here. Whether I'm ahead here or not, I can't be sure... leaning towards not. However, if I do win this showdown, I've got close to 45K in chips and will be able to push people around. The stacks on my left will now have to be cautious of me, not visa versa. If I fold here, I'll have only 15k and still have to worry about the bigstacks on my left. My question to you: Do you think this is a situation to risk it, even if it may be slightly -EV, due to greater benefits if I win? Mistaken 
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#6
07-23-2005, 12:45 PM
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Re: -EV a profitable situation?
The way you played it you should call here but you're probably way behind. The pot is laying you too much money and as long as he doesn't have AA's you've got the right price. If you were going to consider folding to a reraise you should have opened for a smaller raise like 5000. If not you're better off eithere raising more PF to say 10K where you're announcing to the table you're committed to the hand and putting the rest in on the flop or just open push. I personally like the raise to 5000 here and lets me get away with 8.5 BB's if someone repops me and plenty of chips to do damage at a table with plenty of desparate short stacks willing to put chips in with less than premium hands.
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#7
07-23-2005, 12:48 PM
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Re: -EV a profitable situation?
This personally doesn't look like a resteal situation to me. If a player puts in 35% of his chips to open, I'm going to assume he's calling my reraise so I better have a good hand to make this play. I think you would be really lucky to find KQ or a weaker Ace here unless you just know this player is bad.
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#8
07-23-2005, 01:44 PM
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Re: -EV a profitable situation?
Does anybody else fold this preflop? I hate having to face a push and open pushing will only get you called by a better hand. If there are antes I probably push, but in a party tournament I think its better to wait.
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#10
07-23-2005, 01:59 PM
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Re: -EV a profitable situation?
I think mucking here is right. You still have enough chips to win a hand without a showdown and can should be able to get your chips in in a much better situation.
The rel problem here is that anytime you raise you should know what you are going to do if you are reraised. You committed a large portion of your chips at a critical time with a mediocre holding. a holding that does not want to be called. If you had planned on calling a reraiise you should have just moved in and tried to win the blinds. If not maybe a 5k raise was enough to accomplish your goal. Vince
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