That "Not-So-Fresh" Feeling

[donger]

Oppenent has TAGish stats over 11k hands (27/17/1.7) and is probably reading this right now..

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) 1.0converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP folds.

Turn: (4.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.20 BB

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
Oppenent has TAGish stats over 11k hands (27/17/1.7) and is probably reading this right now..

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) 1.0converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP folds.

Turn: (4.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.20 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I call BS on the Villain here. If he had an A, he would raise PF. If he had a flush, why wouldn't he c/r the turn. I would raise the turn for a free showdown.

[Lost Wages]

His line suggests either a hand that has you crushed looking for action or a turned flush draw semibluff (e.g. K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). I would raise/fold to a 3 bet.

Lost Wages

[Danenania]

I would raise.

[donger]

There are a lot of aces that he just calls with from the BB that might elect to peel a flop like this (AT springs to mind). Villain would probably play this hand the same way, fearing I might take a freebie on the turn.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a lot of aces that he just calls with from the BB that might elect to peel a flop like this (AT springs to mind). Villain would probably play this hand the same way, fearing I might take a freebie on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 17% PFRer limps first in from MP with ATo? In general, I don't buy it. But you were there, so you probably have a better read.

FWIW, I am never not raising that hand first in from MP. The only time I would limp with and Ace is with A6s or lower and the table is extremely passive PF (otherwise, I muck). My PFR is around 17%.

[Alobar]

I don't think a TAGish player donks the turn here with just a semi bluff. I think its a made hand that is scared you are going to checkbehind on the turn, and he doesnt want to give you a free card, or a hand he is looking to bet/3bet with. Donking a broadway board like this against a PFR wouldnt be the smartest thing in the world if you just had a draw. That said tho, there are a TON of players with good stats in the 5/10, but can't play post flop, so who knows, this could be anything.

Honestly, I don't like my situation here enough to raise, becuase I think you get a freeshowdown on the river often enough by just calling a bet. If a spade falls on the river hes going to check it to you, and if he doesnt I think its an easy fold. you are also going to get a cheaper card to beat him with all the times he holds a hand like AJ or QJ. If you truly knew the guy was good, I dont think its a bad fold, if it was a typical donk, I'd raise. Here there is enough doubt (if your only read is the stat read) that I'd like to see a showdown, but I'd like to see it cheaply.

[Alobar]

I dont think he meant MP was the TAG, he was talking about the BB.

[donger]

would you think folding is a reasonable option? the pot is actually pretty small (4BB) and i'm only getting 3:1 effective odds to call down.

By the way, this guy seemed competent from my play, and this bet looked pretty freaking scary. I hadn't seen him gaybet much, and when he did, it was usually looking to three-bet.

[Danenania]

Won't a decent player usually fold a weak A here to a raise? That would be huge and it seems a likely holding (along with some possible Q's, semibluffs, monsters).