Just want confirmation

[POKhER]

I feel like an idiot posting it, But as my parents dont believe me on my calculations/That poker = Profitable = +EV decisions can you confirm this?

52 Cards - 2 Cards in my hand (Ak[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

Flop: XXX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

14[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in a card deck, 2 + 3 (in hand and on table) = 9 Left.

47 Cards to come, 9 Help me(make me win for arguements sake).

47-9 = 38 = 38:9 = 4.2:1 AGAINST hiting my flush draw.

If pot is 4.2BB and i call(Or bet and arnt raised and ONE other Calls) I'm profiting by 1BB each time(what he calls).

PLUS more including my river bet.

Thanks - Just need to prove to parents, and confirm my own thoughts

Played for few months building my BR from $0 to $265, But making sure as I've confused/Lost confidance in my calculations due to so much doubt from my parents.

P.s. Im 18 years.

[evans075]

Your post is really confusing flop is xxx [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] one spade, all spades, i'm confused. If you need runner runner then odds are going to be smaller. Now if you have two spades on the board, two In your hand then yes you are right! you have roughly a 4:1 chance of hitting. Post this in the probablity forum and you will get a better more explained answer.

[OrianasDaad]

When you have one card to come, and you will win with a flush draw, then calculating EV is pretty easy.

9 cards will make you a winner (9/46) = .196 or 19.6%
37 cards will make you a loser (37/46) = .804 or 80.4%

You add the amount you win when you make your flush to the amount you lose when you don't.

Let's say the pot is 4.5BB on the turn after your opponent bets. You are getting 4.5-1, but the EV calculation is easier with the percentages.

.196(4.5) + .804(-1) = .882 - .804 = +.078 BB

As the pot gets bigger, your EV goes up even though your odds of making the hand don't. Let's say the pot is 6.5BB after your opponent bets.

.196(6) + .804(-1) = +.372BB

A pot of 4.1 on the turn?
.196(4.1) + .804(-1) = -.019BB, or roughly break-even.

This 4.1 correlates with the odds of hitting the flush with one card to come. (46-9)/9 = 4.11:1.

[ QUOTE ]
Played for few months building my BR from $0 to $265, But making sure as I've confused/Lost confidance in my calculations due to so much doubt from my parents.


[/ QUOTE ]

While support from your parents is nice, it should have nothing to do with your self-image. If you really want to convince them, then buy them a nice poker math book. I haven't gotten "Weighing the Odds in Hold'em" by King Yao, but I think it will probably fit the bill. If they don't want to read it, then they don't want to be convinced.

Most people don't want to believe anything different than they already believe. This is a flaw found throughout our race. Self-honesty is the cure, but you'll find that most people don't have the capacity to have this.

[evans075]

I wish I could crunch these numbers like this. NH

[Rosencrantz1]

This deck you play with, that has 14 spades...where do I get one?

[evans075]

[ QUOTE ]
This deck you play with, that has 14 spades...where do I get one?

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed that!

[POKhER]

[ QUOTE ]
This deck you play with, that has 14 spades...where do I get one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lmao, Ooops 13 (i wondered why i typed that reluctantly).
1 - 10 J Q K A OOOOPPPPSSS
A=1 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Oh and sorry XXX [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I meant to type:
XX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X (Two Spades, 1 Other)

Rest is correct, THanks for awesome explanation Orianas

[masse75]

With 2 cards to come, you're 1.9 to 1 after the flop to hit the flush (assuming no improvement for your opponents). After the turn, 4.1 to 1 to hit it on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
With 2 cards to come, you're 1.9 to 1 after the flop to hit the flush (assuming no improvement for your opponents). After the turn, 4.1 to 1 to hit it on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, stated a little bit differently, the 1.9 to 1 odds corresponds to about a 34% chance to hit the flop by the river:


8/47 (for the turn) + 8/46 (for the river) = 0.344

Note that adding one to the "odds" and dividing gives the same value: 1/(2.9) = 0.345

Disclaimer: I'm new to this... am I correct? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Weatherhead03]

Yes you are correct. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]