ITM varience

valenzuela · #1 07-16-2005, 05:14 PM

after 411 SNGs I have a 35,7% ITM in the 11s...do I suck?Is it possible that Im just having a bad run? or is 411 way too little to worry, even about ITM%s...unlike other posters Ill admit I tilt a lot!! Anyway does anyone know anything about ITM variance..I have an horrible ROI as well but I wont care about that for now, Im more worried about my ITM %

citanul · #2 07-16-2005, 05:18 PM

itm variance can be big over any sample size, and clearly the smaller the sample, the more likely the variance is to be big. to get an accurate assessment of your variance, go look over a bunch of your games from 5 handed on and see how luck treats you. do it honestly. when you get lucky to get in, don't not count that and do count the time you got unlucky and busted. this shouldn't be an incredibly difficult thing to do.

posters have posted having blocks of 500+ games with ITMs of 5% or more off from their "normal" ITM. it's not a huge thing to worry about usually.

worrying about your ITM more than your ROI is pretty silly though, for the obvious reason that one of them makes you money and the other doesn't.

citanul

Mr_J · #3 07-16-2005, 05:27 PM

"Is it possible that Im just having a bad run?"

Sure, my first450 sngs (all $33s) were breakeven for 33% ROI (and haven't played one since, guess I've got issues with $33s now). You'll have to analyze your play though to see how much of it is bad luck and how much was tilt.

valenzuela · #4 07-16-2005, 05:29 PM

my reason for worrying about ITM rather than ROI is cause ROI needs a bigger sample size, I wont do your exercise because Im getting screwed lately while when I used to play on party my luck was "normal" and all those HHs are erased cause I didnt know they only lasted a month back then. In fact Im a losing player on my empirepoker carrer and I just keep playing because I have a tasty affiliate deal with some site.

Freudian · #5 07-16-2005, 05:33 PM

Could be bad luck. More likely you have one or more pretty sizeable leaks in your game (based on your posts in this forum my guess would be overaggression).

How is your finish distribution?

1: ?%
2: ?%

etc.

valenzuela · #6 07-16-2005, 05:41 PM

errr..ok dont laugh.
1)53
2)44
3)50
4)36
5)47
6)57
7)49
8)34
9)23
10)18

big stacks fold. blins 150/300
me:1500
BB:1000
I have A3 and I fold...now thats a bad streak...

citanul · #7 07-16-2005, 05:43 PM

it is semi reasonable to not worry too much about your roi while your sample size is small, i'll give you that.

however, to be concerned with "getting screwed" while at the same time asking a question about "variance" and also being unwilling to look over your games to see if you are *actually* getting screwed or just deceiving yourself is a dangerous thing to do. not that it's not possible that you have a wholly objective stance on your own play and results, but it's very difficult to do so.

the idea that ITM should be worried about because it stabilizes faster than ROI is a flawed one though. like i said before, only one of them concerns how much money you're making. also, remember that as a beginning/learning player these stats are going to fluctuate wildly.

citanul

citanul · #8 07-16-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
big stacks fold. blins 150/300
me:1500
BB:1000
I have A3 and I fold...now thats a bad streak...

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not really a complete hand history or anything, but that play isn't a "bad streak" it's just sort of unforgivably bad. i say unforgivably because well, we can't forgive you for such a thing, only you can, and you shouldn't be able to accept something that bad out of yourself.

citanul

valenzuela · #9 07-16-2005, 06:01 PM

I click the fold button by mistake while I was writing my finish distribution...ok Ill do your exercise.
skill ITM:0
tilt OOTM: 0
bad luck OOTM: 1
running into a good hand and then sucking out and reaching the money..:-1
running into a good hand and finishing OOTM: 0
tilt ITM: -2
positive: my ROI should be higher
I think this is kinda flawed but oh well.
edit: a bad luck loss is when IMO an oponent clearly misplayed a hand and I loss, if they suckout on me but they played the hand correctly I wont count it.

Freudian · #10 07-16-2005, 06:06 PM

I think you bust out in 8th-10th too often. You playing a lot of hands for a lot of chips in level 1-2?

The amount of 1st-4th is very low overall. You have 44% (and given that, your 1st-3rd is fine but you need to be around for the bubble much more often). I have 58% in the 11s.

My guess is a serious case of overaggression and inability to get away from hands where you should know you are beaten.