AK folds on the river - the second coming!

[ryanghall]

Empire 200NL full ring. Villain (42/5/2) has $235, I have him covered.

I get A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB.

1 fold, 2 calls, 1 fold, Villain calls, 1 call, 1 fold, a 2% PFR player raises to $8 from the button. 1 fold, I call from the BB. 3 others call, including Villain.

Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, deciding to go for a check-raise to find out where I'm at. The other 4 players also check :/

Turn is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet $35 into a $40 pot. Villain calls. The others all fold.

River is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. Villain bets $100. I fold.

I just can't see myself beating much but a bluff here. Any 9 has me beat. 88 and 66 has me beat. T7 and 75, while unlikely, have me beat.

Thoughts?

[deadmoney98]

I think you would have more information if you threw out a blocking bet of some kind on the river, but in general I like it. Villain may have had KQ or something like 77, but a hand like T9/98 seems more likely.

[FreakDaddy]

Well, OOP it's a tough hand. I think I lead the flop though. I'd find out now where you're at since you're going to be in a tough spot the rest of the hand. If you're called, I'd probably check the turn. As it stands, I think if you lead this turn, you should lead the river, perhaps for 1/3 pot. Reason being is I think villian may even a bit confused about what you hold. He could easily have small pair, AQs, KQs and a number of other hands whatever he does have, he's not worried about giving a free card on the flop, which creates a lot of questions. But with the numbers you posted here (even if he only raises 2%), I don't think you can just instantly give him credit for AA or a 9. At least attempt a blocking bet instead of seeing monsters.

[mustardo]

This is a pretty read dependent situation. Has he slow played sets on draw heavy boards? What has he normally bet on the river with his strong hands? His pot sized bet on the river seems like he doesn't want a call.

All in all though without reads I like the fold a nine is likely holding as he may not put you on a king after the flop got checked around and thought his nine was good.

I normally play tourneys though so I have a question: could you put out a blocking bet of about $50 and see a showdown cheaper, or is there a fundamental reason why this is a bad play? The reason I ask is that there was alot of draws he could have missed and by checking you asked him to bluff, obviously if he raised you could be pretty sure he has the goods and fold. As I say that is as much of a question as advice.

Mussy

[ryanghall]

2 is the Villain's aggression rating.

The reason I don't lead this flop is if the PFR has AK, which is quite possible given his 2% PFR, I want to be able to check-raise him to put him to the difficult decision. Then if he goes over the top, my decision is easy. I think 5-way with a tight PFR in position, the chances that this flop checks around are usually v. low.

Anyway, that was my thinking. Might be a good river for a blocking bet.
Ryan

[mustardo]

Guess those previous two answer my question

[ryanghall]

I think we can probably rule out KQ. I think KQ would be happy as hell to get to see a showdown here.

Ryan

[dibbs]

I'd lead the flop but that's probably a style thing.

Problem with a blocking bet on the river is any above average aggressive player will snap you off it pretty quick, as you're hand is pretty well defined and his isn't, but I still think it's worth a shot. You'll lose a little bit now and then but it may save you folding a winning hand enough to make it worth it.

You may be against KQ or KJ cheeze here, but I doubt you are good 1 in 3, maybe, I guess it's player dependent.

As played good fold.