Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question

David Sklansky · #1 07-10-2005, 10:42 PM

You are an excellent player in a typical 10-20 holdem game that is worth one big bet an hour to you or about fifty cents per hand.

A hypnotist comes along and because of him every player assumes (with 100% certainty) you hold QJ of diamonds every hand. Total amnesia from hand to hand. What will your hourly rate increase to? What percentage of the time will you see the flop?

fimbulwinter · #2 07-10-2005, 10:53 PM

you mean to say that if i hold A3o and the board is AK987 my opponent will get into a raising war against me for his entire chip stack when he holds 22?

if this is the case, then almost all hands except QJ have value >0 and could be played from any position assuming normal limit buyin stacks (say 50BB's right?).

maybe you could clarify?

fim

snowgurts · #3 07-10-2005, 10:54 PM

It all depends on the table. If it's a tough table, good with hand reading, they will "correctly" put you on Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] every hand and, invariably, lose a lot of money to you when you have a legitimate hand. Also, you can (assuming you know they "know" you have QJs) bluff a lot of QJ2 rainbow pots.

On the other hand, if you're at a hodge-podge table who only have premonitions that you have QJs, but won't act on it, the play will hardly change. Of course, I bet the Q-10-2 rainbow bluffs will still hold credence.

I'm fairly certain there's no mathematical way to quantify that, other than somehow quantifying the table's ability to read hands.

The real question is, what happens when they get the Q or J of diamonds for themselves? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

snowgurts · #4 07-10-2005, 10:57 PM

"if this is the case, then almost all hands except QJ have value >0 and could be played from any position assuming normal limit buyin stacks (say 50BB's right?)."

74o is 74o, no matter how deceptive you are. The only exception is if you hit a miracle 3-5-6 flop, but you shouldn't be seeing a flop, in any event, with 74o.

threeonefour · #5 07-10-2005, 11:02 PM

I would play every single hand that looked like it was going to be heads up. since implied odds are huge. and you are effectively holding two hands every hand. if the oppenent can't beat QJdiamonds on the river he will always fold, also if he can beat QJdiamonds on the river the villian will always cap the river if you want it capped.

if the game was ten handed I would guess my VPIP would be 40ish range.

suited diamonds hands go way down in value.
Qx and Jx goes down in value I would think.
i wouldn't ever play QJ of course.

this is a very incomplete answer but i guess someone needs to get the ball rolling...

EDIT:
hmm i just realized that you should play everytime you are in a situation where you would normally play QJdiamonds plus more hands.

since QJdiamonds is going to hit a lot of flops I would think your VPIP should be pretty close to 100%

Doc7 · #6 07-10-2005, 11:02 PM

but they assume you don't hit the flop at all w/ QJ (even though you REALLY have 74o) if it is 7 - 7 - 7, and will insta-call an all-in bet if they can beat a Queen kicker.

The original post states 100% certainty. Even if you TELL them I have four of a kind and I bet all-in, they will call if they can beat a queen kicker. Anything short of showing your cards, and they will be 100% sure you have a QJs.

Snoogins47 · #7 07-10-2005, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
74o is 74o, no matter how deceptive you are. The only exception is if you hit a miracle 3-5-6 flop, but you shouldn't be seeing a flop, in any event, with 74o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Standard deception is one thing, your opponent "knowing" what you have, and it being wrong, is another entirely.

Do they know that you know that they know you have QJs, even though you don't?

(I just fell in love with my own sentence)

snowgurts · #8 07-10-2005, 11:08 PM

Yeah, I saw the "A hypnotist comes along and because of him every player assumes (with 100% certainty)" and realized that whole second scenario of mine doesn't exist.

It's an interesting question, and, in reading some other comments, I want to change my first thoughts -- I would nearly call everything but a pre-flop all-in with any two cards, knowing I can get away from a losing hand (AAK doubled suited, no diamonds) cheaply.

threeonefour · #9 07-10-2005, 11:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]

"if this is the case, then almost all hands except QJ have value >0 and could be played from any position assuming normal limit buyin stacks (say 50BB's right?)."

74o is 74o, no matter how deceptive you are. The only exception is if you hit a miracle 3-5-6 flop, but you shouldn't be seeing a flop, in any event, with 74o.

[/ QUOTE ]

74o would have a lot of value wouldn't it? remember if the flop is QJ2 you will win on the flop. also if the flop is KTx you will have a straight draw (though zero/negative implied odds if you hit).

also suppose its headsup action and the flop is 722. if the villian has even K high he will cap every street against you(if you so choose).

Bunch · #10 07-10-2005, 11:24 PM

I would call every hand preflop except qj and suited connectors or ace-little of diamonds. Then I would bet the flop any time it comes jack or queen high. Also, I would draw to my imaginary flush or straight since they will all fold if it hits. My guess is the win rate would be huge, at least 10bb/h.