$33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with any 2?

AA suited · #1 07-09-2005, 09:04 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t580)[/b]
HERO (t1220)
UTG (t1055)
Button (t5145)

Preflop: HERO is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button goes all-in, Hero ???

Big stack has been pushing EVERY hand when folded to him since we entered the bubble.

I put him on any 2.

Surprisingly, it's -EV to call even if i put him on 72o.

raptor517 · #2 07-09-2005, 09:05 PM

assuming big stack shoved, i would autocall here. sb has like 10 hands before he is blinded out. this is an autocall. holla

citanul · #3 07-09-2005, 09:06 PM

i call like a shot here. you're not exactly in a spot where it's 100% that you're in the money if you just wait. especially not if you start playing like a puss and the big stack is smart enough to keep shorty around.

the moral of the story is both:

1) you're not a lock for the money if you fold

and

2) play for first

citanul

AA suited · #4 07-09-2005, 09:17 PM

for me, play for 1st only applies AFTER itm.

Too bad Eastbay's site is down. I wanted to ask him if this would one of the times where you shouldnt wait for a better spot?

citanul · #5 07-09-2005, 09:18 PM

boo, i don't like this "only when itm" thing.

hourly rate = good. also, i think just in terms of roi, it's a bad way to think about things...

citanul

johnnybeef · #6 07-09-2005, 10:22 PM

I just wanted to add to what citanul is saying here. There were a couple of threads last week in which the topic of playing for first was discussed. To summarize, in order to maximize your earn, you want to play for the highest realistic place. Most of the time, that is going to be first place. There are, however, situations in which first place is not a very likely scenario, and as such, your game should be adjusted.

The situation that you have presented to us is definately not one of those times in which first place is unattainable, and as such, this becomes a very easy call.

lastchance · #7 07-09-2005, 10:30 PM

Fold Equity = 0.2262
Call Equity if won = 0.3169

.2262/.3169 = 71% chance of winning

Well, I respect raptor and Citanul a lot, and first is where most of the money is being paid out...

But folding has a high equity, and calling can only increase that so much..

I think this is going to be a very interesting discussion.

PrayingMantis · #8 07-09-2005, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
assuming big stack shoved, i would autocall here. sb has like 10 hands before he is blinded out. this is an autocall. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

raptor, assuming short stack is shorter, and big stack is bigger (i.e, you and the other mid-stack are the same as in the original hand), how short should shorty be in order for this not to an autocall for you?

Shillx · #9 07-09-2005, 10:42 PM

I turbo muck this and only find a call with TT+. I might think for a while with 99, but would still probably find a fold there. AK just isn't a big enough favorite IMO to gamble here.

Brad

Newt_Buggs · #10 07-09-2005, 10:51 PM

At first I thought that this was an autofold with the blinds so small and I was surprised that so many people are saying that this is an easy call. ICM definitly says that its a fold, but now I'm realizing that any opponent smart enough to push any two here is also smart enough to keep the short stack alive. In the long run it might be better going for it now to avoid further abuse from the BS, but I still think that its close.