Turn Decision

[Matt D]

20-40 Horseshoe Tunica

Game playing kinda tough. 8 dealt in. I have Ks Js 3 off the button and open raise. SB, just sat down 1 orbit ago, has not played a hand, 3 bets. BB, fairly tight but likes to defend, calls. I call.

Flop Kh 8h 6s

SB bets, BB calls, I call.

Turn Kh 8h 6s 9s

SB bets, BB raises. What is my play? Who thinks that maybe picking up a few extra outs is worth a 3 bet?

What I know:
The BB would not raise here if he did not have 2 aces beat. He likely has made 2 pair on the turn, probably 8's and 9's. He will never fold his hand and I do not have to pay off the river if I don't improve.

[Matt D]

The implied pot size if I 3 bet and the SB folds is $560 (4.5 bets preflop, 1.5 bets on flop, 7 bets on turn, 1 bet from BB if I hit on river), therefore each extra out is worth about $13. If SB folds AA, I get 3 extra outs against 89. If SB folds AK, I get 4 extra outs. If SB holds QQ, JJ, or TT; doesn't fold, or BB has K9 or a set, I get no extra outs.

So it seems to me that the parlay of the BB having 89 and the SB having AA or AK and the SB folding has to happen almost every time to make a 3 bet correct here (I am investing an extra $40).

Anyone see any holes in this logic?

[Buckshot]

I think I would've avoided the turn raise by raising the flop. Then, perhaps, my opponents would give me a free card by checking to me on the turn.

~stephen

[Matt D]

If you get in this spot in a mid limit game on the flop and raise (not a bad play IMO) and both opponents only call the flop and check to you on the turn, BET THE TURN. Your hand is good.

[Buckshot]

I'm not advocating to check the turn, even though my post might read that way. I'm saying that getting a free card in that spot is an option, and surely it's player dependant.

I think a 3-bet in that spot is NOT a good idea. IMHO, I think it would blow your implied odds.

~stephen

[astroglide]

so you're decidedly losing in at least 1 spot by your own accounts, and may very well be losing in another.

that means you really want a jack or a spade (a king isn't great). if this was my game, i would call and expect the sb to at least call, and probably 3bet it for me. you're drawing, so welcome the opponents.

note: if you thought you were much closer in strength to the bb and that the sb would lay down aces here, a 3bet is the clear play.

[Ed Miller]

Who thinks that maybe picking up a few extra outs is worth a 3 bet?

What outs do you pick up? If SB has AK or KQ, then you pick up one out if you force him out. Otherwise, I don't see how getting the SB to fold here is beneficial if you know you are behind. If there is a chance that the BB is pumping a draw, though... then 3-betting is much better as you may make the best hand fold.

EDIT: If your opponent has exactly 98, then 6's are outs as well if you get the SB to fold... I missed that the first time around. If your opponent has a set or two pair to the K, then getting the SB to fold is not very useful. I still think you should just call unless you think there is a chance that BB is pumping a draw (which you obviously don't).

[Gabe]

More than a "few" outs.

[Ed Miller]

Thanks, Gabe... the question is whether to 3-bet or just call... how many additional outs does he pick up if the SB folds. He has the flush outs either way.