Tough River Decision

[mscags]

No read on this guy because I just sat down and have never played with him before.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls

4th Street - (7.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (5.50 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (8.50 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls

River - (14.50 BB)

Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___?
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___raises
Total pot: (20.50 BB)

[bigredlemon]

easy fold. 95% of the time, seat 8 has a straight or flush. You're showing A35 and betting all the way, so he's not raising you on the strength of his low. In unlikely event that he doesn't have high, he's got a pretty good low and your 8low isn't going to win anything. Seat 6's c/r indicates at least two pair, so your bare aces for high isn't going to win anything even if seat 8 doesn't have the straight or flush. You're looking at 2 bets to win 8, and I don't think you'll get anything more than 80% of the time.

[arod15]

ITs an easy fold there are two players betting and rasing and you cant beat a two pair fold.

[Jeffage]

What's tough about it? One pair no good. For two bets cold, it's an easy fold.

Jeff

[Nick_Foxx]

i think the question is more about the low end than the high end, guys, he knows his aces are no good... the question is the perfect 8 callable on the end... since you just sat down, i think you have to fold in this situation although i have ended up calling off 2-3 bets in similar circumstances just in case you are up against trips and a flush...

i would call if i knew it was going to be 2 bets... getting jammed in for 4, i can't risk that happening... although like i said, i'd probably still call half the time if i had a feeling seat 8 was on a flush draw

mike

[Jeffage]

I missed that this was high low...sorry about that. But I still think you're getting carved up here. I fold.

Jeff

[wdcbooks]

I must be on crack because I think this is a clear call. I really think your crappy eight low is good here. The actions of seat eight scream flush draw that hit, not a good made low. Put yourself in his position. You are showing an excellent low and could easily have a good six or seven here, even if you only made it on the river.

I think that if eight made a low he would simply call on the end, fearing that you had him beat. Seat six may have trips (only one six remaining) or two pair, and seat eight knows he has him beat. Your low needs to be good one in five times here, I would say it is good one in two times, so call. You will only get reraised by seat six if he is full. That seems unlikely so you are facing two bets to win more than twenty.

[Nick_Foxx]

the problem is seat 8 has played it exactly as if he had hit either a low straight (to the 6 or 7) or made a flush on 7th st... the hero has a scary board and has been betting the entire way, to be raised on the end, the guy is not fearing a wheel... like i said in my previous post, id probably end up calling off 4 bets half the time if i thought seat 8 was on a flush draw... problem is, so many clubs came out early that i think its slightly more likely he was on a good low draw with a gutshot, and hit it on the river

mike

[mscags]

That was exactly my problem, I couldn't decide if I was against the flush or the low. The thought of it getting jammed and him showing down a crap 7 made me want to throw up.

[Andy B]

I think I check behind on sixth, although betting isn't the end of the world.

I think that there is enough chance that your low is good that you have to grit your teeth and call. There are a lot of bets in this pot.