If he always folds when missed..

[MrStretchie]

OK. Let's say you have an opponent who will always fold the flop HU unless he hits at least a pair or a gutshot. (Seems plenty of these exist..)

You hit a pair ~30% of the time, right? So I'm guessing he would hit >= pair/gutshot about 50%. ?

So let's take the cases where you're OOP against this person, and playing heads up. Seems like you should see every flop, and bet out every time, right?
On those times that you miss, half the time he folds, and half the time he calls. Even if he wins every time he calls, which he won't, you break even on those plays, meaning you get to see the flop for free every time. When he folds PF you win, and when he hits and you hit bigger, you should get paid off nicely. (And you'll have a pretty good idea when you hit bigger, knowing his calling requirements.)

Is this sound? It seems like it..

[PokrLikeItsProse]

It gets even better when you know your opponent's starting requirements and can tell when he is likely to have missed a flop.

[K C]

I wouldn't bet out every time here, even though it may seem like the right move. For one thing he may very likely catch on to your tactic and adjust.

A lot of this is going to come down to how he typically reacts to your checking to him. In any case though when you're heads up with someone it's usually better to mix it up to ensure that your opponent is guessing more. Always betting it out is going to actually give the advantage over to your opponent, as he will then act when he has the advantage and turn the blinds over to you when he doesn't. This almost always ends up with him making more per hand than you do.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com

[xorbie]

Yes this works against a moron but not much else. I think even the most unattentive players will notice that you bet every single hand against them (not to mention that your results are thrown off by the times he has a PP and therefore "hits" every flop).

[MrStretchie]

True - I used heads up for a simplified 'theoretical' example. I was playing a game of 6-max yesterday where one of the players played like this. Because there were often other people to the flop and such things, I don't believe he ever noticed that I was always betting into him on the flop, because even after over an hour, he was still folding better than 50% of the time..
So eventually I started isolating him with just about anything high, suited, or connected, knowing that I'd win half of them even if I didn't hit. Unfortunately I wasn't lucky enough to connect solidly when he also hit something, so my profits were minimal, but there were definitely profits.

The other advantage was that other somewhat more observant players saw me stealing a lot and I tended to get more action from them. And really.. this guy knew I was stealing a lot too. Which he 'countered' by calling every time he got a piece of anything. But never when he didn't.

It just seemed odd to be isolating with suited 10's and such things, so I figured I'd post about it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]