flopped bottom set -- can you fold?

Matt R. · #1 07-02-2005, 11:51 PM

I think this hand is very interesting in that, given the conditions, I think it would be possible to fold a set on this flop. Here is the hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) converter

CO ($14.07)
Button ($24.3)
SB ($45.4)
Hero ($22.25)
UTG ($25.6)
UTG+1 ($27.45)
MP1 ($25.85)
MP2 ($26.45)
MP3 ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 5 folds, Button calls $0.25, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $1, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $3, UTG raises to $5, Hero raises to $10, UTG raises to $25.35 (All-In), Hero calls $12 (All-In).

Turn: ($48.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($48.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $48.35

I think that after the 3 bet by villian, you can probably put him squarely on 4 holdings (unless you have a read that he's retarded) -- 66, 55, 65s, or 43s. If not after the 3 bet, you definitely can after the 5th bet (all-in) is put in. Your equity with 22 is 31.4% against this hand range. What is your line after villain's 3 bet? After his all-in?

jcmack13 · #2 07-03-2005, 12:25 AM

I would be so vexed by that min-re-raise to $5. No reads on this opponent? Is he passive, overaggro, hopelessly fishy, masterful post flop, nothing?

I probably take the same line as you and re-raise to $10. I grit my teeth and call when he shoves. I don't think there's a spot where you can stop raising on this flop until all your chips are in. If there's someone good enough to fold this, it's not me. If he's a true donk, he could be slowplaying an overpair in this spot, but if he's reasonable at all, that seems unlikely.

I go broke with this every day and twice on Sunday.

swolfe · #3 07-03-2005, 02:03 AM

lead the flop

crosse91 · #4 07-03-2005, 11:44 AM

i get the feeling that it wouldn't have mattered in this hand as much, but

LEAD THIS FLOP!!!
it is far too coordinated to let someone peel a card off to beat you with, a flush and straight draw are out there....you have to protect your hand on this flop with a bet.

donny5k · #5 07-03-2005, 01:12 PM

Why can he ONLY have those hands? Bad players play badly... I don't see why he couldn't have 78 hearts or Ax hearts or a limped overpair or even A6.