Turn semi-bluff check-raise

damaniac · #1 06-29-2005, 02:58 PM

Haven't posted a hand in a long time. This play was inspired by one made by a couple of idiots against me live, that I thought were stupid at the time but actually had some merit. Basically, in a multiway pot against a good player (me) who is leading and some calling stations, they check-raised the entire table on the turn with hands that had the calling stations beat and were behind me, but because a scare card came (JTx flop, T on the turn) and the pot was protected, I folded the best hand. Regardless of whether that was right on my part, I figured it works well as it can get the raiser to lay down a better hand in a big pot.

In this hand, PFR is TAGish, don't recall the stats, SB is very loose (67% ish) and fairly passive.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls.

Bet so Button will raise (often with overcards I think) to force out SB. Doesn't happen.

Turn: (6 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, Hero raises...

Lots of outs (probably 13 or so, my A, 5's, and most [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s are good I think), plus this play really looks strong (flush, trips, boat) against a good player. If he does have a better hand (probable now that he bet the turn after raising the flop), do you think he'll lay it down often enough for this to be a good play?

W. Deranged · #2 06-29-2005, 03:02 PM

Well, see, here's the thing, what you're doing is not really semi-bluffing. You have what I call a "fulcrum" hand, meaning a hand that is very clearly a dividing line between the great hands and the mediocre hands. Realistically, your opponent is not folding a seven here particularly considering he has redraws. If your opponent doesn't have a 7, you are ahead, unless your opponent has a bigger pocket pair, and I think it's not that likely he'll fold that either in a heads-up pot. The only hands I see an opponent folding are hands that are worse than yours.

Given that you are not going to be folding a better hand, you are going to be folding worse hands which might pay you off later, and you have many very good outs here, raising the turn is not a good play. Call the turn, call the river if your opponent bets. Raise if you hit your flush.

I think one of the most useful general rules for turn play is to raise when you have no outs and call when you have a bunch of them. Raising and getting three-bet sucks, because you're putting in three bets on the turn with a 4-1 draw.

damaniac · #3 06-29-2005, 03:07 PM

Well the pot isn't HU, and in fact I am check-raising them both on the turn, so if Button is a thinking player with an overpair (esp with no clubs), what's he going to do? The pot is protected by the calling station. So my main question is will he fold an overpair here often enough to make this profitable? If my estimate for outs is correct, I'm getting close to neutral EV even if both call the turn raise, so it seems (unless my reasoning is off) that this has to fold a better hand a very small % of the time to be profitable.

Grease · #4 06-29-2005, 03:13 PM

Depending on the player, you could get the button off many hands that beat you here. I really like the theory behind your play, and think this is the optimal situation for it, but I'm not convinced of the practicality of it. The button knows he's not drawing dead unless you have 77, and if he has a club with an overpair, then you're definitely getting called here.

I really like the idea, I'm just not sure it can work. I really want to hear the results of this and more debate on this play, because this is quite interesting.

W. Deranged · #5 06-29-2005, 03:13 PM

Ahh... now I see, you're looking to promotion raise... that's sweet. In retrospect I actually really like the concept.

With that said, I just don't think an overpair is going to fold enough here to make the raise worth it. You'd have to give your opponent a lot of credit (and/or read him as really weak) to make that happen.

I also don't think you can get to a neutral draw here. A 7 is a real possibility, and so I think you must discount your aces and 5s. At most I see you for 10-11 outs or so... or between 20 and 25% equity, which is certainly losing money on the turn in a three-way pot.

W. Deranged · #6 06-29-2005, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really like the idea, I'm just not sure it can work. I really want to hear the results of this and more debate on this play, because this is quite interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said...

elindauer · #7 06-29-2005, 03:24 PM

Looks perfect to me. Great thought process and excellent timing. You can make the TAG fold a better hand and get it heads up against an opponent drawing almost dead, and if it backfires, you have plenty of outs, losing very little value when they both call. You'll be 3-bet very rarely, as your hand looks huge. Your raise doesn't just say "I like my hand", it says "I have either trip 7s or a flush and I want you to call". Very nice.

-Eric

damaniac · #8 06-29-2005, 03:26 PM

Curious about two things:

1) How often does Button have an overpair here once he bets the turn? TAGish, blind steal situation, 3-way, raises flop bet, bets into two callers (one a cold-caller) on the turn when a 3-flush hits. I think it is very high, but I'm interested to see what others think.

2) If he has an overpair, it's basically 50/50 that he has a club, right? Slightly less I guess because if he has aces he can't have one, and also he may check behind with a pair and a high club (checking with outs), maybe it's not correct but some people would do that anyway. Anyway, so that means that 50% of the time, he is seeing me check-raise both players when a three-flush hits and a small pair is on the board, and he has a weak redraw. So is folding an overpair sans a club "weak" here, or smart? Do you fold against a TAGs check-raise in this spot?

elindauer · #9 06-29-2005, 03:27 PM

Suggesting that you can't get a better hand to fold is crazy. Make this same post and give the TAG AhAd and you'll get a ton of suggestions to fold, including mine. What does hero have that he bets the 77 two club flop, and check-raises two players on a turned club? Of course he has a big hand.

my 2 cents.
Eric

crunchy1 · #10 06-29-2005, 03:30 PM

I think you just picked up 9 outs on the turn and need to call a bet and see the river. Button could 3-bet, SB could wake up and 3-bet - both are probably comitted to calling one more on your turn checkraise. Calling one more on the turn probably commits one or both to seeing a showdown now that the pot's getting big. Best to close the action with a call.

You asked in a follow-up post if you think this check-raise will push Button off of an over-pair. I was thinking this was possible - and then I noticed this was a 6max hand. I think it's a lot less likely that you push the Button off an overpair in a 6max game versus a full-ring. I'd expect Button to call down. I'd also expect SB to call down and this is a reason why I don't like the raise.

If you were acting before SB and could push him out of the pot on the turn I'd like it better. But since SB already called one bet he's going to call another bet when you checkraise and that's not increasing your chances of taking down the pot.