JTs - ennybody letting this check through?

bozlax · #1 06-29-2005, 07:43 PM

This table was running pretty well for a while...a few nutbags, a couple of sane players and a couple of folks somewhere in the middle. Then the nutbags left, the sane players have turned into turtles, and all that's left is the 'tweeners, and they're all more skittish than a nudist working at a porcupine farm.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero ?

I feel 90% certain that if I bet the rest will fold, but I'm torn because my equity is sky-high, here, and if even one player calls a bet I'm making money.

What do folks do?

P.S. The table broke up completely 2 hands after this.

pryor15 · #2 06-29-2005, 07:46 PM

the question is do you think someone will end up improving to something you can beat? if they make a straight somehow on the turn or 2 pair, you have a redraw, but it's a bit risky, IMO

milesdyson · #3 06-29-2005, 07:47 PM

i definitely do not check this through. when your equity is large, you try to get money in the pot.

if you bet here and everyone folds, that's fine, you immediately win the pot. if you bet here and get some calls, you get to take a free card on the turn if you miss, instead of your flop check through giving someone the confidence to bet a weak pair into you on the turn if you happen to miss.

istewart · #4 06-29-2005, 08:09 PM

BET.

aces_dad · #5 06-29-2005, 08:34 PM

Yeah, your equity is just too good not to bet on the flop. Hopefully someone will call and they will check to you on the turn as well.

If they all fold then at least you take the pot and it's time to look for a new table. Winning the small pot right away isn't the worst thing that could happen in that situation (though it's not the best either).

AlmightyJay · #6 06-29-2005, 08:39 PM

I think it's important to realize that you don't have a made hand yet. You have an assload of equity, but if everyone folds, it's not a disaster either.

bozlax · #7 06-29-2005, 08:43 PM

Yeah, I bet. I bet and everybody folded, and I folded the next 3 hands preflop, and then the blind was to me and I left to pick up my kids.

It's just a sort of theoretical question, at what point is JUST a draw so good, and a pot so small, that you're willing to forego the possibility of winning the pot on the spot in favor of mebbe improving your take? It's a gamble, because if one of your opponents spikes a crappy pair on the next card you might cost yourself a couple more bets in addition to losing the pot...in this case, for instance, we're talking about a net (2.75BB) swing (not netting 3.5SB plus the 1 more BB you put in on the turn when somebody bets into you UI, assuming you'll fold the river UI).

Hmmmm. I guess I just answered my own question.

milesdyson · #8 06-29-2005, 08:51 PM

i think it's really important to consider that your "90%" estimate of them all folding to your flop bet is results-oriented. usually that number's around 60%.

bozlax · #9 06-29-2005, 09:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's really important to consider that your "90%" estimate of them all folding to your flop bet is results-oriented. usually that number's around 60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Miles, typically I respect your opinions, but I don't see how you can say this; a read is a read, and this one was part of the basis for my question.

And, in fact, as I've thought further about the question I've come to realize that it's immaterial. As it's not a near-nuts made hand, I'd just as soon they all fold, I'll take the win and we can all move on. This sort of situation could swing your BB/100 by 6 if it comes up 2% of the time (which I think is actually a pretty conservative estimate) and you mishandle it.

milesdyson · #10 06-29-2005, 09:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Miles, typically I respect your opinions, but I don't see how you can say this; a read is a read, and this one was part of the basis for my question.

[/ QUOTE ]
3 limpers check folding on an 89K two tone board is honestly pretty rare. i just said to consider that your 90% estimate may have been results-oriented.