Daily Hand Post: I like folding in large pots

jason_t · #1 06-27-2005, 09:56 PM

A little more standard today but still an interesting decision since the pot is large. Villain is 18/6/1.1 over 3788 but all those hands are from datamining. Our history together is limited to this session; I did fold to a turn raise with 99 on a board of 3TTK to villain in a previous hand.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: I am UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, I raise, 5 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, I call.

Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, I raise, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, I bet, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (11 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, I....

Willluck · #2 06-27-2005, 09:59 PM

What does he have that he three bets that you beat? Easy fold IMO.

ArturiusX · #3 06-27-2005, 10:17 PM

I fold this too.

Nick C · #4 06-27-2005, 10:25 PM

It looks like you're out of luck here.

Unless he's making a desperation stab into two players with 99 or something (and is somehow still in the hand with that), I can't figure out anything you beat.

Overcards plus a gutshot seems like a really likely hand for Villain to have been drawing to on the flop and turn.

dealer_toe · #5 06-27-2005, 10:55 PM

I can't come up with anything that you beat on the river enough. 99 is the only thing, but I don't get the CC on the flop. Anything that he would CC there with is a flush draw w/ a straight draw. If I had to pick one I would say AsKs, but AK, JJ, TT, play this the same. QQ, KK, AA are a little less likely because we would have heard a lot more from him on the flop and turn.

jgorham · #6 06-27-2005, 11:20 PM

Jason, with a sample size that large, I think it would be very worth posting villain's went to showdown %. That said I think this is a standard fold.

jason_t · #7 06-27-2005, 11:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jason, with a sample size that large, I think it would be very worth posting villain's went to showdown %. That said I think this is a standard fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

37.25%.

mscags · #8 06-27-2005, 11:27 PM

This is tough, but I think I call here unless you have a real solid read that this player will do this and have the goods. The pot is fairly large and he could just be trying to throw you off a better hand. You don't have to be good here very often to show a profit.

Edit: Yeah I didn't see that this is three handed, probably a good fold now. Do you call this though if it is heads up?

Paxosmotic · #9 06-27-2005, 11:30 PM

12:1 closing the action? Eh, I dunno, I think I've gotta call and see what he's holding.

toss · #10 06-27-2005, 11:32 PM

Place him on a hand range. He 3-bet PF so AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AJ maybe. We're screwed by all.