flopped trips with terrible kicker from the BB

[cassady]

Playing 4/8 at the local B&M. CO is a dealer from another casino and a decent player.

Hero is BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

UTG+1 call, MP1 call, MP2 call, CO call, Hero checks.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checsk, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO re-raises, Hero calls.

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets, CO raises, Hero folds.

Anyone here see fold earlier on or a way to save a bet?

[thirddan]

i dont like your fold...even if CO has a better kicker than you, there are still enough cards that can give you a winner or a tie that you should see the river and probably showdown...

[toss]

Whats with the flop checkraise? Pots not big enough. Bet folding the turn seems donkish.

[DBowling]

dont fold. you are good a lot of times, and even when youre not, you have outs to chop.

[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]
dont fold. you are good a lot of times, and even when youre not, you have outs to chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, I don't think I'm good here very often. This woman is fairly tight, especially post flop, and the vast majority of the table was pretty bad. If she was putting multiple bets in, she always had the goods. I probably should have put a more specific read in the original post.

For this argument, assume I'm behind.

It's 8 to 1 pot odds to call. Six out to chop, three to win. She'd most likely have raised KQ preflop in this situation, so we can assume she's not on a full house (unless she's on pocket 6's).

1/8 times = 4 big bets
1/15 times = 8 big bets (not counting implied odds)

The odds aren't there to peel another one off. And that's ignoring the fact that she could be on pocket sixes, which would leave us with only 3 outs.

[soweak.]

If you read her as a tight no-nonsense player why did you lead the turn? Would not a check-call be in order here?

Could she play KXd this way?

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
you are good a lot of times,

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. This is a good player. I have a hard time thinking of a hand a good player would play this way that doesn't have us crushed. That said, you still have to call because you have 3 pretty solid outs and just a ton of split outs against your opponents possible holdings. If the came a 2,3,5, or 7, I would muck. All you can beat then is a bluff, and good players aren't 3-betting the flop, raising the turn, and beating the river with nothing 1 in 14 times.

Edit: I didn't think of Kx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so you have to call the river too.

[cassady]

I lead the turn because there was a chance she would three-bet the nut flush draw for a free card. If she'd just called that bet, I'd have bet-called the river on any non-diamond. Given her raise, I put her almost certainly on the queen, with a better kicker.

[mtdoak]

You've got outs to chop the pot (and to win it). I've seen some overplayed flush draws in my day, a poorly slowplayed AA, etc. Lets say he has 66....(a likley holding), you have 1 Q, 3 4s, and 3 Ks in the deck to win here. If he has a better queen you still have outs to chop...the only hand your really worried about is KQ or Q6. I call this down.

[sy_or_bust]

Fold is bad. The turn card is good for you, and you need to see the river. This is a bad time for bet/fold.