Sanity Check (kinda)

Dave D · #1 06-25-2005, 02:21 PM

Pretty sure my fold was correct here. Just want to make sure. What odds/how big of a pot do you need to stay in, in this situation?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, BB calls.

River: (13 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: 13 BB

rmarotti · #2 06-25-2005, 02:25 PM

This fold is pretty bad.

Dave D · #3 06-25-2005, 02:33 PM

Why...

I figure I'm drawing for two outs, or maybe runner runner straight/boat against...

Flush draws
Straight Draws
Any Ace

sweetjazz · #4 06-25-2005, 02:36 PM

Reads would help here. If MP1 is loose in his flop bets, the right play could be to raise. It's even possible that you get an ace with a weaker kicker to fold, but being that this is Party 2/4, I'm not holding my breath on that.

But generally speaking, I think this is a good fold. Between the 3 limpers and the 2 blinds, you're likely to be up against an ace most of the time, in which case you have two outs, one of which is slightly dirty (the Kd makes a broadway possible) and the other is very dirty (the Kc also makes a flush possible).

You're not going to be able to "get the information" you need to decide whether your hand is good, and your best hope is to be able to see the showdown for 2 BB (1 BB from the flop raise, 1 BB from a turn bet, and check behind the river). The only thing you have going for you in this hand is position, but you could easily be donkbet on the river and so not get a cheap showdown anyway.

All in all, I think this is a pretty easy fold. This is a hand, imho, where your hand looks deceptively stronger than it is. The key reasons you can fold are: you are in a multiway pot against loose players many of whom play any ace, and you're drawing very slim if any of five opponents holds one; and you don't have the backdoor nut flush draw which would add significant value to your hand.

rmarotti · #5 06-25-2005, 02:37 PM

There's only 3 other aces in the deck They're not always out there. You're getting 14:1 immediately to draw to your set *if* you are behind with what looks like little risk of a raise at this obviously passive table.

sweetjazz · #6 06-25-2005, 02:40 PM

The only straight draws are broadway gutshots, so they are not a significant factor. The club draw is problematic because it has a significant chance of ruining your hand even if you are best, and it taints your Kc as an out.

The biggest concern is that there are a lot of loose players in the pot, and most of them probably play any ace. The type of player in this pot who is most dangerous is a 30/2 type. Such a player has a high chance of holding an ace in his hand; the more of these such players in the hand, the more I want to fold. By contrast, a 65/20 player is not dangerous at all -- he's unlikely to have an ace unless he's got a really bad kicker, and even he might have raised preflop.

sweetjazz · #7 06-25-2005, 02:46 PM

Are you planning to go to showdown UI if MP1 continues to bet the turn and is called by, say, two of the LPs (which is a very very likely scenario)? If not, what is the relevance of the fact that you sometimes have the best hand here?

His set draw is tainted, and he does not want to go to showdown. He should obviously bet if checked to on the flop, but I think calling a donkbet is more problematic, because (1) he no longer has control of the hand and can't take a free showdown, (2) the donkbet is suggestive of a weak ace, (3) and even if the donkbetter doesn't have him beat (which is very possible), the likelihood that an ace is out there is still problematic. Betting when checked to on this flop is probably very slightly +EV; the way things have developed, calling the flop bet is no longer +EV imho. The main reason that betting the flop is +EV is that you may fold everyone if an ace isn't out there, and because you can get a cheap showdown even if the ace is out there. Both of these benefits have been lost.

Dave D · #8 06-25-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you planning to go to showdown UI if MP1 continues to bet the turn and is called by, say, two of the LPs (which is a very very likely scenario)? If not, what is the relevance of the fact that you sometimes have the best hand here?

His set draw is tainted, and he does not want to go to showdown. He should obviously bet if checked to on the flop, but I think calling a donkbet is more problematic, because (1) he no longer has control of the hand and can't take a free showdown, (2) the donkbet is suggestive of a weak ace, (3) and even if the donkbetter doesn't have him beat (which is very possible), the likelihood that an ace is out there is still problematic. Betting when checked to on this flop is probably very slightly +EV; the way things have developed, calling the flop bet is no longer +EV imho. The main reason that betting the flop is +EV is that you may fold everyone if an ace isn't out there, and because you can get a cheap showdown even if the ace is out there. Both of these benefits have been lost.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning is exactly what I was thinking. I *have* to hit runner runner full house to win here basically, or at least be confident in any way.

This table is indeed relativly LP, but very willing to call down. So I *know* that any ace will call me down.

If I had the nut flush draw. I think I would have raised the flop.

Grease · #9 06-25-2005, 03:11 PM

For me, it's easy to find reasons to fold this flop, and I know I shouldn't.

I raise here, and fold to a turn stop-and-go. Giving up on this huge flop for 1 bet is a bad play in the long run IMO. Don't assume you're up against an ace. Unless the player is uber LP, I find a raise.

shant · #10 06-25-2005, 04:04 PM

If you had the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] this would be an easy call. Since hitting your set may give someone a flush, not to mention the 2 million redraws, this is a good fold.