AK unimproved in big pot

[madscout]

Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Main villain in this hand is UTG+1 and is something like (35/.5/1.0) after 50 hands or so.

Preflop

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (19 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">5 players </font>

Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button folds

Turn: (11.5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">4 players </font>

Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls

River: (14.5 BB) 2urple horseshoes: <font color="blue">3 players </font>

Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

edit: fixed the flop action

[crunchy1]

You have 6 unclean outs in a mutliway pot and you may already be drawing dead.

Easy turn fold, IMO.

[Luv2DriveTT]

Why did you call the trun? There is no logic that makes it a reasonable call.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you call the trun? There is no logic that makes it a reasonable call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave myself 4 outs, plus sometimes utg+1 is semibluffing a big heart. Also, I am closing the action against utg+1 and will presumably be doing so on the river as well.

~mad

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I gave myself 4 outs, plus sometimes utg+1 is semibluffing a big heart. Also, I am closing the action against utg+1 and will presumably be doing so on the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
But he lead the flop?!? Do you really think that UTG+1 is semi-bluffing a big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] into the PFR and PF 3-Bettor on the flop AND the turn? I don't.

[madscout]

Hero led the flop.

[madscout]

When I check the turn, I think utg+1 feels free to bet a wide range of hands, specifically one with a large heart. This is a large pot and to steal it only a small % of the time would be profitable for him.

~mad

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero led the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
My bad.

I still don't think you've got enough outs to call a bet from that position. I also think it's bad form to ignore that UTG+2 has been calling along the whole way so far as well.

You're likely behind already on the turn - you're even slimmer to improve on the river.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a large pot and to steal it only a small % of the time would be profitable for him.

[/ QUOTE ]
True - but he has to steal it from 3 other players (including the PF aggressors) at the point at which he makes the turn bet.

(A) You're read on him is not good enough to really be considered and (B) even if it was a good read - it's not of the player type that would attempt this play.

[QTip]

Why are we betting this flop?