AQs and a monster draw - best line for the turn?

[nolanfan34]

$8/$16 at the Wynn on late Sunday night. This is my first foray into something higher than $4/$8 live. I've been running pretty well, showing down mostly winners when I've been in a pot.

Villain in the hand was previously seated directly to my right in the 8 seat, but changed to the 2 seat when it came open, I think because he was tired of limping and me raising. Since he's moved, he's been 3-betting my open raises, and we've each taken down a pot. Then this hand comes up.

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG+1 and open raise. Folded to villain who 3-bets. Folded to a 2+2er in the BB who has suffered some bad beats and is slightly stuck who cold calls two bets, and I call.

3 to the flop for 9 SB's.

Flop of J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

2+2er checks, I bet, villain raises, 2+2er says "cold call" and does so, I 3-bet, villain 4-bets (This confirms he actually is ahead currently), 2+2er cold calls again, and I call (I should have capped, not used to the 5 bet cap).

3 to the turn for ye old metric fuckton of chips (10.5 BB).

Turn is a low blank. 2+2er checks.

What's my best line here? And what do you put the 2+2er on with those cold calls?

[Entity]

2+2er probably has AQs, possibly A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I doubt he plays JJ/TT/99 this slowly on the flop or plays QQ that passively preflop. I can't think of many hands that he "should" have but if he's stuck his hand range is a bit wider than if he's playing great. That said, even if he's playing decently AQs is very possible here.

I check the turn intending to call as many bets as I have to. Beware board pairing frush outs if 2+2er springs to life on the turn.

BTW - cap the flop. I'd strongly consider 4-betting preflop if villain has been lightly 3-betting but it depends on his propensity to 5-bet.

Rob

[ihardlyknowher]

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What's my best line here?

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Check/call IMO.

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And what do you put the 2+2er on with those cold calls?

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AQ?

[jba]

how about 88 or QQ for 2+2er? AQ sounds good too.

we might have as many as 18 outs.

I wonder how anyone else feels about betting out here. If 2+2 does have a Q, might we get him to fold? I think we gain 3 outs in that case. might be worth it?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
how about 88 or QQ for 2+2er? AQ sounds good too.

we might have as many as 18 outs.

I wonder how anyone else feels about betting out here. If 2+2 does have a Q, might we get him to fold? I think we gain 3 outs in that case. might be worth it?

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2+2er doesn't have 88 here unless he's playing pretty badly IMO. I just don't see him calling with all that action knowing he's likely to be drawing to 4 outs.

QQ is possible but I'd be very surprised if he didn't make it 4-bets with that.

Rob

[feelixthegreek]

You've got 10 stone-cold nut outs (7 non-board-pairing diamonds plus the other 3 kings), 2 likely outs (the board-pairing diamonds), 3 unlikely outs (the aces), and 3 absurdly unlikely outs (the queens). Since I don't think I'm getting rid of anyone, the only motive for betting and inducing more action is for pot-building. Is getting 2-1 on whatever you invest on the turn worth these outs?

I guess I'm checking, though I'd welcome a rationale for betting, since checking makes me feel lame.

Would BB be cold-calling away w/ KJd? Perhaps he flopped a set and wantes to c/r turn to make you call 2 to make your flush.

knowing BB is stuck is a strong argument for slowplaying a set, taking that risk to maximize as much as possible if the turn doesn't suck (which in this case it doesn't). It's a mistake I would surely make.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got 10 stone-cold nut outs (7 non-board-pairing diamonds plus the other 3 kings), 2 likely outs (the board-pairing diamonds), 3 unlikely outs (the aces), and 3 absurdly unlikely outs (the queens). Since I don't think I'm getting rid of anyone, the only motive for betting and inducing more action is for pot-building. Is getting 2-1 on whatever you invest on the turn worth these outs?

I guess I'm checking, though I'd welcome a rationale for betting, since checking makes me feel lame.

Would BB be cold-calling away w/ KJd? Perhaps he flopped a set and wantes to c/r turn to make you call 2 to make your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that 8's are fairly likely outs as well.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've got 10 stone-cold nut outs (7 non-board-pairing diamonds plus the other 3 kings), 2 likely outs (the board-pairing diamonds), 3 unlikely outs (the aces), and 3 absurdly unlikely outs (the queens). Since I don't think I'm getting rid of anyone, the only motive for betting and inducing more action is for pot-building. Is getting 2-1 on whatever you invest on the turn worth these outs?

I guess I'm checking, though I'd welcome a rationale for betting, since checking makes me feel lame.

Would BB be cold-calling away w/ KJd? Perhaps he flopped a set and wantes to c/r turn to make you call 2 to make your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that 8's are fairly likely outs as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget the non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Ks and 8s could very well mean a chop.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've got 10 stone-cold nut outs (7 non-board-pairing diamonds plus the other 3 kings), 2 likely outs (the board-pairing diamonds), 3 unlikely outs (the aces), and 3 absurdly unlikely outs (the queens). Since I don't think I'm getting rid of anyone, the only motive for betting and inducing more action is for pot-building. Is getting 2-1 on whatever you invest on the turn worth these outs?

I guess I'm checking, though I'd welcome a rationale for betting, since checking makes me feel lame.

Would BB be cold-calling away w/ KJd? Perhaps he flopped a set and wantes to c/r turn to make you call 2 to make your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that 8's are fairly likely outs as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget the non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Ks and 8s could very well mean a chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. Nothing we can do to get AQs out of this pot, though.

Rob

[feelixthegreek]

I flaked on the 8s. Sorry.