Irie's Bane

[Scuba Chuck]

From Irie: "I will be willing to wager up to $300 that my ROI will be positive."

Although I think it's very possible to have a positive ROI at the $5s (especially if he single tables) while covering his hole cards, the problem is that it is very -EV. The primiary factor is time & money. I'm sure your $/hr will not be significant playing the $5s, and the additional $300 you make won't make up the difference. The only thing that makes this feat +EV is to open up the pool of money to which he'll take bets. I'd think up to $2k might make this a +EV move for him.

Good luck at the tables
Scuba

[OrcaDK]

Your effective gainEV is a combination of $EV/hour and (fun/interesting)EV/hour. I believe the funEV of this experiment i very high, giving a positive gainEV overall.

Why oh why does everything have to be measured in $EV/hour? Where did the fun go?

[Luminous Mist]

Good thing you posted this because I'm pretty sure Irie (or anyone else) wasn't aware of this aspect of his quest.

Great catch!!!

Luminous

[gumpzilla]

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Although I think it's very possible to have a positive ROI at the $5s (especially if he single tables) while covering his hole cards, the problem is that it is very -EV.

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You seem to think it's a near lock that he can do this. I'm highly skeptical. 20% rake, not seeing your cards and being up against opponents who probably call too much are pretty massive hurdles to climb over. One can argue that it's not really necessary to see your cards to play at the bubble, but heads-up will suck almost always, and you'll never get any chances to utilize good hands before the bubble, so you're likely to arrive there without much more than you can steal along the way. This last bit will generally be a non-trivial sum, but I think this is going to be very, very hard to do, overall. It's definitely interesting, though.

[skipperbob]

You guys don't get it!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
This is a $300 advertisement: He knew that Raptor would rise to the bait; the next bet will be $50 large, Raptor's pea-sized brain won't correctly compute the odds = BahBye [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Scuba Chuck]

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being up against opponents who probably call too much

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You seem to fail to reailze this is precisely the reason why this is profitable.

And finally, no one seems to get my dry humor. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[gumpzilla]

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being up against opponents who probably call too much

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You seem to fail to reailze this is precisely the reason why this is profitable.

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So you profit when you're pushing any two on the bubble and your opponent calls you with Q5?

Just because calling too much is a mistake doesn't mean that you're the beneficiary of the mistake. It's not like this is the good kind of calling too much where they're calling in situations where you have wildly the best of it.

[Scuba Chuck]

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being up against opponents who probably call too much

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to fail to reailze this is precisely the reason why this is profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you profit when you're pushing any two on the bubble and your opponent calls you with Q5?

Just because calling too much is a mistake doesn't mean that you're the beneficiary of the mistake. It's not like this is the good kind of calling too much where they're calling in situations where you have wildly the best of it.

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Hmmmm, it's obvious you don't get the solution to this quandry. Poker is about all the decisions you make. Some decisions require action, some do not.

[gumpzilla]

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Hmmmm, it's obvious you don't get the solution to this quandry. Poker is about all the decisions you make. Some decisions require action, some do not.

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Folding your way into the money doesn't seem like a viable strategy to me, so you're right, I didn't even consider it. The finish distribution you'd get in this fashion would be weighted heavily enough toward 3rd that you'd need a killer ITM which I don't think you'd get to make it happen.

[microbet]

I think you're right. I had tried this in play money as an experiment and you do easily win by folding ITM (2nd places too) by not playing a single hand.

This morning I tried it out in a $6 and it didn't seem like it would work out often enough.