$22: Acceptable bubble steal opportunity with a shortstack in the SB?

[spentrent]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

SB (t600)
BB (t1138)
Hero (t3247)
Button (t3015)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero pushes.

I figure that SB folds in case BB wants to get frisky, while BB folds because SB is so short. (Hero cries if Button wakes up.)

Does Hero have enough chips to make this play?

[exist]

if you are going to try to steal, why not just raise to 600? when you go allin, you risk your whole stack for not much more fold equity.

[A-Baum]

Not sure if I'd pick that exact spot to do it, because I get a little weary of stealing from shorter stacks later in a SNG because they are going to make a stand at some point, and in my experience once they get down to 1k or so with BB at 200 or 400, they are bound to call with anything, and I like to have a hand a little better than J7o to attempt to knock them out. They would be calling any A, K, or even Q. But that's just me, and I might be completely wrong, but that's how I've been playing the 22s and 33s and doing pretty well.

[microbet]

Your reasoning sounds good to me. In theory you should have big-time FE. In a $22 I don't think the average Button and BB will appreciate how strong a hand they need and the blinds aren't worth that much to you here. I think you need to have a read that they are somewhat solid players.

If they aren't very aggressive, I think you can raise to 500 and get the same hands to fold and then you can fold if Button pushes.

[flyingmoose]

If I try to steal in this spot, I'm raising to 800 instead. It will have the same affect on the SB and BB, but you won't be bubble boy when the button wakes up with a monster.

That said, I wouldn't steal from UTG when a shortstack is about to go broke and the BB is only 200 when I have t3000.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
if you are going to try to steal, why not just raise to 600? when you go allin, you risk your whole stack for not much more fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that Button can see right through this and he might try to steal the pot from me for the same reasons I want to steal it from the others. He's got no business calling here without QQ-AA/AK.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning sounds good to me. In theory you should have big-time FE. In a $22 I don't think the average Button and BB will appreciate how strong a hand they need and the blinds aren't worth that much to you here. I think you need to have a read that they are somewhat solid players.

If they aren't very aggressive, I think you can raise to 500 and get the same hands to fold and then you can fold if Button pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good points. I'm very chip-greedy lately.

Incidentally, lotsa 4ths and 1sts. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[A-Baum]

I think that Button can see right through this and he might try to steal the pot from me for the same reasons I want to steal it from the others. He's got no business calling here without QQ-AA/AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have played numerous 22s and 33s, and very very rarely do people try to re-steal without a monster. There isn't much bluffing on the bubble because people are playing with scared money. They don't come over the top of a steal without AA-JJ and AK. My opinion.

Fold that J7o and wait till you're on the button to steal.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]

I have played numerous 22s and 33s, and very very rarely do people try to re-steal without a monster. There isn't much bluffing on the bubble because people are playing with scared money. They don't come over the top of a steal without AA-JJ and AK. My opinion.

Fold that J7o and wait till you're on the button to steal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. FPS on my part I'm concluding.

[microbet]

Is this the way he does play or the way he should play?

If he plays the way he should, he can only call with AA unless he puts you on a pretty loose range, then he can add KK. If he puts you on any two he should only call with JJ+.

I think pwning the bubble with the big stack is a concept that has to be pretty carefully applied in the $33s and below.