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#1
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Is this play +ev?
Opponent is 8.5/4.25/12.5 after 94 hands
My thinking pre-flop is I've got an ace, let's see the flop for one small bet closing the action. My thinking on the turn is he could have AA 3 ways, KK 3 ways, AK 9 ways. Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls. Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero calls. Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls. River: (12.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls. Final Pot: 16.25 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> Hero has As 9c (three of a kind, nines). MP1 has Kh Ks (full house, kings full of nines). Outcome: MP1 wins 16.25 BB. </font> I think capping the turn costs me three extra bets. Do I normally win two extra bets instead of losing three? Should I have not waited until the turn to cr? He's not going to lay down KK on the flop. He'll probably go into call-it-down mode until he hits his K on the turn -- right? Should I have slowed down on the turn when he 3 bet? I think AK was very likely at that point and he would have bet it that way too -- no? All comments appreciated. -DP |
#2
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Re: Is this play +ev?
I think waiting for the turn to c/r is fine. villain is either nearly dead with AK/AQ or drawing to 2 outs with a big pair, slowplaying seems fine here.
I think when you c/r the turn you are screaming that you have a 9 (esp from bb), and when he 3-bets it's time to call down. |
#3
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Re: Is this play +ev?
[ QUOTE ]
My thinking pre-flop is I've got an ace, let's see the flop for one small bet closing the action. [/ QUOTE ] This kind of thinking can be expensive. Given the villain's 12.5 aggression factor, I think I 3-bet the river. |
#4
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Re: Is this play +ev?
But villain's 8.25 vpip and 4.5 pfr makes it likely that he's only being that aggro with premium hands.
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#5
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Re: Is this play +ev?
[ QUOTE ]
Given the villain's 12.5 aggression factor, I think I 3-bet the river. [/ QUOTE ] I think THIS kind of thinking will get expensive. 8.5/4.25/12.5 = nut peddling. Ramming and jamming with 1st/2nd nuts. It's not a great read over only 94 hands but 3-betting the river here is serious chip spewage. Call the turn 3-bet. Check/call the river. |
#6
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Re: Is this play +ev?
[ QUOTE ]
8.5/4.25/12.5 = nut peddling [/ QUOTE ] Good point. I didn't think this one through. [ QUOTE ] Call the turn 3-bet. Check/call the river. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. |
#7
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Re: Is this play +ev?
Crunchy:
[ QUOTE ] 8.5/4.25/12.5 = nut peddling [/ QUOTE ] I agree completely. I think too often people misinterpret high aggression factors as genral laginess or playing aggressively with mediocre hands, when it generally means (certainly when accompanied by 8.5% VPIP and 4.5% pfr) nut peddling....fit or fold mentality. BTW, I think the preflop call is pretty bad agaisnt this player. |
#8
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Re: Is this play +ev?
I'm benefiting from hindsight since you included results, but I think this an super easy fold pre-flop. You're getting crushed by anything Mr. UberRock is going to raise.
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#9
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Re: Is this play +ev?
Against this player you're either up against KK and AK once he 3bets the turn. I think half the time he won't 3bet TPTK. There is still 12 combinations of AK but only 3 for KK. I think you can cap the turn. When he raises you on the rive ryou have to call though. I think you played it fine.
edit: I didn't even include the AA combinations which makes this an even easier cap. -SmileyEH |
#10
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Re: Is this play +ev?
[ QUOTE ]
Against this player you're either up against KK and AK once he 3bets the turn. I think half the time he won't 3bet TPTK. There is still 12 combinations of AK but only 3 for KK. I think you can cap the turn. When he raises you on the rive ryou have to call though. I think you played it fine. edit: I didn't even include the AA combinations which makes this an even easier cap. -SmileyEH [/ QUOTE ] if he only 3bets 50% of the time with AK, I think 3-betting the turn is EV-. here's your equity against 6 combos of AK and all KK: Board: 9d 9s 3s Kc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 51.1364 % 51.14% 00.00% { KK, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AsKd, AsKh } Hand 2: 48.8636 % 48.86% 00.00% { As9c } you are behind here. If he's 3-betting AK 2/3 of the time: Board: 9d 9s 3s Kc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 39.4886 % 39.49% 00.00% { KK, AhKh, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh } Hand 2: 60.5114 % 60.51% 00.00% { As9c } now we're a 3:2 favorite. However!! the 3 times we're ahead we only win 2 (he is calling our river bet), and the 2 times we're behind we lose three, so it's EV neutral. and I don't think we can assume he's 3betting 66% of the time. |
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