AK vs TAG and 4flush

Piiop · #1 06-17-2005, 05:43 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

UTG+1 is a crazy, maniac guy. CO is a TAG, his stats are 18/9/2.5 after 320 hands.

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, CO :#A500AF(TAG)/ raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, CO :#A500AF(TAG)/ calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
TAG checks, Hero bets, TAG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
TAG bets, Hero...

Fold?
Raise, fold to a 3-bet, check behind on river if no 3-bet?
Raise, fold to a 3-bet, bet river if checked to?
Raise, call a 3-bet, call river?
Call, call river unimproved, raise if we fillup?
Call, fold river unimproved?

damaniac · #2 06-17-2005, 05:48 PM

I can't imagine raising and folding is at all wise, given that we do have outs here. Also, if bettor is bluffing, he's drawing pretty thin so I'm ok with keeping him around. I'd probably just call the turn and fold to a river bet, raise if you fill up. My call/fold is a good idea if you really don't think he'll bluff twice, if he is that aggro then I'd plan to call down, you're getting 7.25:2 to do it plus those times you improve, but I'd be surprised if he bluffs both streets that often.

mute · #3 06-17-2005, 06:01 PM

Real tough one, but I think I call down. I can see him making this play with just a pair of aces, trying to fold a better hand.

Raising for a free showdown and folding to a 3bet cost the same, but means folding a hand that could still improve, so I don't like that, and I think any line that involves putting more than 2 BB in the pot is spewing.

Piiop · #4 06-17-2005, 06:16 PM

I'm not so sure raising and folding to a 3bet is bad. Once he 3-bets, we'd be getting 10.25:1 for a 4 outer and we need 10.5:1. Also, many times he would have something like AxQc,AxJc, or KxQc so we'd have even fewer outs. I'm assuming once he 3-bets, the chance of bluffing is 0. Though, I still wouldn't feel happy about folding and we'd get to a showdown for the same price if we just called down.

One thing to consider here is that if he is bluffing with something like AJ or TT no crubs, he still has 9 outs to split. So, it might be worth it to make him fold a bluff on the turn.

Also, I don't like calling the turn and folding the river unimproved. We don't have odds to fill up and if he's bluffing the turn it's likely he'll bluff the river.

Stack · #5 06-17-2005, 06:17 PM

Raising the turn is not a good option here because you can't make a better hand fold (he 3bet preflop, so if he has a club, it'll be a big enough one and if he doesn't have a flush, you probably have the best hand)

I think I'd go call the turn, and I'd probably call the river too.

PS: I don't play 10/20

damaniac · #6 06-17-2005, 06:20 PM

Good points, although at 10.25:1, we do have some implied odds (it's not like he has to put us on AK and check-fold the river if we fill up). It's probably close.

With regard to the splitting, I figured he had 4.5 outs (for the chop, from his point of view) but since from our point of view 9 outs cost us half the pot when ahead, that makes more sense.

Stack · #7 06-17-2005, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
One thing to consider here is that if he is bluffing with something like AJ or TT no crubs, he still has 9 outs to split. So, it might be worth it to make him fold a bluff on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point, but we are still a favorite, and heads up, I'd push small edges.

Piiop · #8 06-17-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good point, but we are still a favorite, and heads up, I'd push small edges.

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit: So this means you still want to call down? Or now you want to raise?

Stack · #9 06-17-2005, 06:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a good point, but we are still a favorite, and heads up, I'd push small edges.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this means you want to do what?

[/ QUOTE ]

call down. Let him bluff into me. If he as the goods, I loose the same amount as raising the turn.

If there is any chance that he may fold to a turn raise with a better hand, then I'd raise the turn. But her I don't think this is the case.

Edit: After seeing your edit:

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: So this means you still want to call down? Or now you want to raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I didn't mean raise. (maybe my notion of pushing small edges is wrong - is it?)

Piiop · #10 06-17-2005, 06:40 PM

I understand your reasons for calling down, but saying "but we are still a favorite, and heads up, I'd push small edges." seems like that means you would want to raise. As in, we're still a small favorite over his possible range so we're pushing our edge with a turn raise.

I don't equate "pushing an edge" with calling down, I guess. Just clarifying.