Interesting river, live 10/20

DeathDonkey · #1 06-12-2005, 01:28 AM

Live 10/20 ok game, sort of weak tight. Awful player making the game ok limps UTG, decent but too loose MP limps, I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in hijack, folded to UTG and MP who call.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG bets out. UTG is pretty straightforward but I've seen him earlier bet out into the preflop raiser with an OESD, as well as 2nd pair another time. MP looks at me and says "you raised preflop right?" and then he calls and I raise and they both call.

Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] checked to me and I bet and they both call.

River is T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], UTG bets out. MP pauses for just a second and raises. Is this a fold or a call? I hope this doesn't turn out to be a "you had to be there" type of thing but we'll see.

-DeathDonkey

sweetjazz · #2 06-12-2005, 04:11 AM

After about 10 minutes trying to figure out who has what, this is what I've got for ya. I think UTG either has trip tens or has made his flush. I don't think MP has trip tens, because he'd be afraid to raise the river with the third flush card coming in, and he wouldn't have asked if you had raised preflop if he had flopped a flush draw.

I think he has a set of 6s or a set of 5s. I think his river pause is because he was planning to check-raise you here. (The one thing that doesn't make sense to me is why he wouldn't have check-raised the turn with a set...so maybe I'm overestimating his hand strength.)

That said, I don't think that read is accurate to determine your river play. If both opponents are sane, given that there's only one ten outstanding, one of them must have a flush or better. That would be one heck of a river fold, but it seems right.

The only way you are good is UTG had like A6 or 99 and decided to bet out, while MP raises with KT. Very unlikely. I hate big laydowns on the river, but I think a fold is right. (And at least folding for 2 bets on the river, if wrong, is a forgivable transgression.)

Great hand post -- I hope more people respond.

toss · #3 06-12-2005, 04:27 AM

Geez it really looks like UTG has the flush and MP raised you too. I think I'm passing this one up here even though we have trips.

Luv2DriveTT · #4 06-12-2005, 09:38 AM

Going for the overcall here has a negative expected value unless you think your hand is good at least 20% of the time (I do not). The risk of being re-raised by UTG is so great that I think its a mandatory lay down. You did the right thing.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

sy_or_bust · #5 06-12-2005, 10:52 AM

It seems obvious you're beaten most of the time, unless you have more to go on than "awful" and "too loose". The flush is reasonable here. I think this is fairly close. You'll win this pot once in a while by calling (there may be a bluff involved), lose often, and come out relatively even. Folding A-high trips to a 3-flush is a pretty big laydown. I'd fold, but I wouldn't feel great about it either, especially if UTG can bluff here and MP2 can bluff better.

DeathDonkey · #6 06-12-2005, 03:44 PM

Good analysis. At the time I finally decided one of them had to have a flush but I was really scared about folding the best hand since MP is good enough to raise UTG to get me to fold what looks like an overpair.

Anyway I did eventually fold, UTG paid off with his worse Ten, and MP took it down with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

-DeathDonkey