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#1
06-09-2005, 10:46 AM
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Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
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#2
06-09-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
If you are playing the $25 Max on PP and the guy has TPTK or an overpair I'm guessing they will call an all in almost all of the time. A few times you might get away with it but I think it's a losing play.
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#3
06-09-2005, 12:50 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
You can't answer this question in isolation. It depends on the game (in person or on line), the board, how the hand has played and how often you've done this.
Say you're a reasonably tight but aggressive player, and you raised preflop. I've got As Kd, and the flop comes down Ah, Qd, 10h. If you go all in, I figure you for Q Q, trying to discourage anyone from drawing to straights and flushes. You're not worried about pocket Aces, because then your opponent will go all in, you're not folding this hand, so it costs nothing to make the raise yourself. Of course, you could have a lot of other stuff. But with most of it, either you want more people in the pot, or you're an underdog and want to keep the stake low. As always in poker, you could be counting on me to reason this way, and have anything at all or nothing. Regardless, the first time you do this, I fold. The second time you do this the same night I look you in the eye and ask myself is it more likely that you set me up the first time in a bluff so you could get me to call the second; or that you got a hand like this twice in a session. The third time you do it, I am strongly inclined to call. If you are representing things inconsistently, I'm more inclined to call. If you're a loose or passive player, I'm also more inclined to call.
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#4
06-09-2005, 01:21 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
seems a bit extreme, man. the pot is only $3....why risk losing much more and pretty much telling the other guy the poop hand he has is good....when you could bet maybe $10-15 and achieve much more? [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#5
06-09-2005, 04:13 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
[ QUOTE ]
If you're a...passive player, I'm also more inclined to call. [/ QUOTE ] Wretched!! PASSIVE - what would a passive player push? Sorry but a truly passive player pushing has you beat, otherwise I agree with watching patterns and punishing loose players. You will get away with the the move far more in tournaments than in ring games. Noone wants to bust out of a tourney, but the more patient pros at a ring game will wait for a hand and destroy you if you pull this. -ZEN
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#6
06-09-2005, 06:27 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
I see your point, and don't disagree. However, my experience is that when passive players do something not passive, it's a complete bluff. I'm not saying that's 100% (what is in poker?), but it seems to hold true often enough that I'm inclined to weigh that in my calculations. Also, I think my future odds of winning money from him go up if he expects me to call his big bets.
Think about a guy who calls a lot. He wants to see more cards either because he is foolishly hopeful or (worse) just curious. He doesn't have much idea what you have, he certainly doesn't have much sense of how his actions look to you. Why would he suddenly go crazy with three queens, with an overcard on the board and straight and flush possibilities? In draw poker he might have been dealt a royal flush, but in hold'em you never have that kind of situation. I think it's more likely that he got sick of being passive and screwed up his courage for one grand bluff. But your point is equally valid.
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#7
06-09-2005, 06:30 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
I think the answer to this is if everyone knows you won't risk it, your expected value suffers. I'm not saying this is a smart play, but you can't rule it out just because it's risky. $10 to $15 costs less if you lose, but is less likely to succeed, and makes you less money a few hands down the road when you go all-in with the nuts.
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#8
06-09-2005, 06:53 PM
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Re: How often are All-ins called in low stakes NL on flop ?
at those limites i bet you would get called at least 7/10 times by people with TPTK or overpairs to the board. Hell, by the second or third time you did it to me I'd be calling instantly. Move it up a few limits and the play becomes alittle bit more viable since players will assume you must have made something that beats a pair. At least I think so.
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