How'd they figure this out?

BottlesOf · #1 06-09-2005, 11:57 PM

Consecutive holes in one odds

This article cites "Golf Digest" which says the odds of a foursome hitting 2 holes in one on a hole is 17 million to one. Where did they come up with that?

RacersEdge · #2 06-10-2005, 12:01 AM

SWAG..

somethingstupid · #3 06-10-2005, 01:50 AM

yes

blaze666 · #4 06-10-2005, 01:54 AM

that is a very silly statistic, it's impossibe to cluculate odds of something like that.

EliteNinja · #5 06-10-2005, 05:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
that is a very silly statistic, it's impossibe to cluculate odds of something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe someone counted all the attempts.

Frequitude · #6 06-10-2005, 07:03 AM

If they could estimate a mean shot accuracy (average distance from the hole) for the "average player", you would have a start.

Maybe assume that "average distance from the hole" is the mean in a normal distribution, and getting a hole-in-one would correlate to the very edge of the distribution.

Then again, I don't know if a normal distribution can be used for something like mean radial distance.

Thoughts?

maryfield48 · #7 06-10-2005, 08:47 AM

Couldn't they use the total number of hole-in-ones over the total number of par three holes played to work out a frequency?

jakethebake · #8 06-10-2005, 08:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Couldn't they use the total number of hole-in-ones over the total number of par three holes played to work out a frequency?

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is probably what they did...which is also why they're wrong.

PokerGoblin · #9 06-10-2005, 11:12 AM

Common knowledge in golf is that the probability of a hole in one on an average par 3 hole is roughly 1 in 13,000.

That figure was probably used to come to that conclusion.

Later

PG

jakethebake · #10 06-10-2005, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Common knowledge in golf is that the probability of a hole in one on an average par 3 hole is roughly 1 in 13,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL...This doesn't answer the question at all. Common knowledge based on what? That's the whole question!