You're going to hate me when you see this hand

Newt_Buggs · #1 06-09-2005, 03:06 AM

BWHAHAHAHAHA! Another PVS thread!! I thought that I was going to give this up then this hand came along....

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter

SB (t965)
Hero (t685)
UTG (t1520)
UTG+1 (t2085)
MP1 (t185)
MP2 (t2170)
CO (t1090)
Button (t1300)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 1 fold, MP2 calls t100, 1 fold, Button calls t100, 1 fold, Hero raises to t685 (All-In)

$50+5

585 to win a pot of 1620 if called or steal 450-not bad odds huh? I figure that if I do get called, I will win around 1/3 of the time making it an almost a break even chip EV.

45suited · #2 06-09-2005, 03:13 AM

I almost never make this move but this looks like a really good spot for it if there ever was one. Nice play IMO.

applejuicekid · #3 06-09-2005, 03:14 AM

Nice play. I really like this move here. Plus the added bonus of having K6 is that you might be ahead if your called by hand such as QJ. QJ loves to call. LOVES IT!

tech · #4 06-09-2005, 03:17 AM

We might have to start calling this the Newt Buggs.

I was at your table the other night and I could tell you were contemplating a PVS. I was fully prepared to spite call. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Newt_Buggs · #5 06-09-2005, 03:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nice play. I really like this move here. Plus the added bonus of having K6 is that you might be ahead if your called by hand such as QJ. QJ loves to call. LOVES IT!

[/ QUOTE ]
If QJ is going to call then it means that I have 0 FE, in which case it is probably best to check.

[ QUOTE ]
I was at your table the other night and I could tell you were contemplating a PVS. I was fully prepared to spite call.

[/ QUOTE ]
or I was involved in a tough hand on another table.

fluorescenthippo · #6 06-09-2005, 03:56 AM

i like it. i would much rather have K6 here than A6 too.

curtains · #7 06-09-2005, 04:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BWHAHAHAHAHA! Another PVS thread!! I thought that I was going to give this up then this hand came along....

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter

SB (t965)
Hero (t685)
UTG (t1520)
UTG+1 (t2085)
MP1 (t185)
MP2 (t2170)
CO (t1090)
Button (t1300)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 1 fold, MP2 calls t100, 1 fold, Button calls t100, 1 fold, Hero raises to t685 (All-In)

$50+5

585 to win a pot of 1620 if called or steal 450-not bad odds huh? I figure that if I do get called, I will win around 1/3 of the time making it an almost a break even chip EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you really think it's break even in chip EV, then its a clear fold (Because you have +EV by checking too)

Newt_Buggs · #8 06-09-2005, 04:46 AM

I think that if I get called everytime then it is a break even chip EV making it a fold. I'm wondering if I can really push all of these donkeys out enough to make this a profitable push. Without working out any math, I'm guessing that if you can get them all to fold 20%+ of the time then it is probably better than checking.

Thoughts on if I can actually get these guys to fold?

jcm4ccc · #9 06-09-2005, 06:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
585 to win a pot of 1620 if called or steal 450-not bad odds huh? I figure that if I do get called, I will win around 1/3 of the time making it an almost a break even chip EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that if you can get them all to fold 20%+ of the time then it is probably better than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your math and logic is a bit off.

Let's start with this: "585 to win a pot of 1620 if called." Ummm, no. You can't include the money you bet in your odds. There is 450 in the pot. You raised the pot by 585. If you get called, then you are increasing your chips by 1035, NOT 1620. It's the same thing as if there was already 1035 chips in the pot, and you needed to put in 585 chips to call. You wouldn't say, "I needed to put in 585 chips to win a pot of 1620 chips" (even though, technically, the pot would have 1620 chips once you put in your bet). You would say "I needed to put in 585 chips to win a pot of 1035 chips."

As for your other assumptions, I have listed them out:
If you are called 80% of the time, then this is a good move.
If called, you will win 33% of the time.
If called, you will bust out 67% of the time.

Doing the math, this means that:
20% of the time: You will have 1170 chips (You push. Everybody folds. You increase your chip count by 450).
26.4% of the time: You will have 1620 chips. (You push. You are called. You win)
53.6% of the time: You will have 0 chips (You push. You are called. You lose)

Does this still sound like a good move to you?