If you get 3 of a suit in 7-card Stud what is the % of getting a flush

KSOT · #1 06-08-2005, 04:08 PM

That is, 3 suited starting cards with 4 left to come.

Also, same question for when your first 4 cards are suited.

Jeffage · #2 06-08-2005, 04:23 PM

It depends how live your suit is. Malmuth lists this in one of his books based on how many of your suit are out. I'll find it when I get home and post it.

Jeff

Mac · #3 06-08-2005, 04:26 PM

With three to a flush on 3rd:

# of your suit on the board Chances for flush
---------------------------------------
0 23.6%
1 19.6%
2 15.8%
3 12.3%
4 9.1%

vintage_sara · #4 06-08-2005, 04:28 PM

how many of your suit are already out that you can see or are we discussing a totally live flush draw from what you know.

bholdr · #5 06-08-2005, 04:45 PM

"That is, 3 suited starting cards with 4 left to come."

16.56%, or 5.04 to 1, assuming no dead cards- but that number doesn't really help you unless you're going all in, since situations change from betting round to betting round.

"Also, same question for when your first 4 cards are suited."

very good, over 50%, in fact, but so much depends on the dead cards that this question is the wrong one to ask. you should learn how to calculate the odds of making a draw and apply those formulae to your questions. basicly, it's:

(1-x)/x to 1, where x= the percentage chance of hitting your hand on the next card, or: [(number of cards left in the deck that will make your hand) divided by (number of unseen cards left in the deck)]

so if you have a four flush on fourth and there are two dead cards of your suit out, that's 7 cards left that will make your flush

divide that by the number of unseen cards left in the deck- if three players see fourth, that's 52-(your four cards + the other seven player's door cards, + the other two player's (that are still in it) fourth st card) or 52-11=41

so, 7/41, or .170731, or 17% that the next card will make your flush.

convert that 17% to (1.00-.17)/.17 or 4.88 to 1, and this number will indicate the pot odds that you will require to call a bet and chase your flush, but don't forget your implied odds, etc... basicly, don't get too wrapped up in knowing the exact odds for each situation.