Flopped Set Dust Bowl

[USGrant]

Serious drought. I haven't flopped a set in 35 opportunities. I have been counting.

WTF? I've had set droughts before, but never this long. And of course, I get regularly pummeled by opponents who flop their set of dueces or treys against me when I'm holding AK and flop TPTK.

What I want to know is: how many hands do you need to go w/o flopping a set until you start getting into the Probability Twilight Zone?

[job314]

Someone recently posted they went 63 hands (with a pocket pair seeing the flop) thus far without flopping a set. Maybe you two can have a race to see who can go the longest without flopping a set.

[AaronBrown]

Depends how strong your ties are to this world. You expect the set every five or six opportunities. But one time in 20, you'll go 24 hands in the drought, which is the standard statistical threshold for assuming something is non-random. On the other hand, that will happen frequently to an active poker player. Remember, somebody hits a one in a million shot in the lottery every day.

When the streak reaches 37 you're in 1% territory and by 55 it's 0.1%. I think that's when you start hearing Rod Serling say "USGrant has just missed another set and is about to make a wish. . ."

[USGrant]

six more whifs since I posted this. multi-tabling. "once every five to six hands" is probably the funniest thing I've read all week.

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
You expect the set every five or six opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... Odds of flopping a set are 8.3:1. The odds of flopping a set or better (full house or quads) are 7.5:1. So you're happy less than 1 time in 8.

I didn't check your other numbers (I'm not picking on you [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] ), but with these numbers, the OP's streak won't look nearly so bad.

Lately I've been really good at flopping sets, really bad at winning with them. Now THAT sucks.

[AaronBrown]

Let's do this with counts instead of odds. Say you start with 7 7. I think there are 19,600 flops, C(50,3). 2*C(48,2) = 2,256 of them are 7 and two cards other than 7. 144 of those are full houses, so 2,112 give you a set but no boat. There are 48 ways to get quads (the two sevens plus any of the 48 other cards). There are also 48 ways to get trips on the flop, giving you a full house.

[kyro]

Hey buddy,

If it makes you feel any better, I just had a streak where I was 4-tabling the SNGs, and I flopped a set 4 straight times when I held a pocket pair. I think I ended up 7/12 or so for that hour.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[capone0]

Was playing a S+G (11 on party 2 days ago). Guy limps with JJ. Flop comes J34. Guy in the blinds bets out. JJ goes allin and shows. Next hand, he limps again. AJx flop. I have A10 in the SB. I bet near pot. He goes allin again. I was like. Could he have set again. And for some reason I frustrating call since I'm in disbelief he just set again or just hit huge again. Guess what, JJ again. Odds of JJ are what 1 in 144. Odds of set are about 1 in 8. 1 in 1152. Odds that it happens in 2 hands in a row assuming they are not connected is what 1152^2=1327104. But on party, it's common place of course [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I've set 2 times in a row before, seen someone with quads and have had it 2 times in less than 5 hands. But to set 2 hands in a row with the same hand, just brutal to me, especially since I only had a couple of more chips than him. God, I hate the people at S+Gs that push anything, never know if they have it, or not. Then again I should have easily folded A10. My odds could be wrong, but they should be close, assuming hands aren't linked on party.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Was playing a S+G (11 on party 2 days ago). Guy limps with JJ. Flop comes J34. Guy in the blinds bets out. JJ goes allin and shows. Next hand, he limps again. AJx flop. I have A10 in the SB. I bet near pot. He goes allin again. I was like. Could he have set again. And for some reason I frustrating call since I'm in disbelief he just set again or just hit huge again. Guess what, JJ again. Odds of JJ are what 1 in 144. Odds of set are about 1 in 8. 1 in 1152. Odds that it happens in 2 hands in a row assuming they are not connected is what 1152^2=1327104. But on party, it's common place of course [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I've set 2 times in a row before, seen someone with quads and have had it 2 times in less than 5 hands. But to set 2 hands in a row with the same hand, just brutal to me, especially since I only had a couple of more chips than him. God, I hate the people at S+Gs that push anything, never know if they have it, or not. Then again I should have easily folded A10. My odds could be wrong, but they should be close, assuming hands aren't linked on party.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is so bad on so many levels.

1) Your odds are messed up and interpreted incorrectly.
2) Party Poker is not rigged.
3) You lost not because you got unlucky that he had JJ but because you played it poorly.
4) Hating sucky players in SNGs is dumb.
5)Paragraphs are nice.

[capone0]

So do the odds for me. What are the odds of getting JJ and getting set.

2nd of all I know I played the hand incorrectly. Did I say I played it well. I just wanted to discuss the fact that the guy got set Jacks 2 times in a row. Please feel free to give me the correct odds.

Don't you see the smily face after I say, common place on party. God, some of you guys are way too super critical. All I'm saying is some people push with any 2 cards. I saw him just push with a set, and thought it would be unlikely that he set again. I never said my play was good, Kyro. I said it was piss poor. Obviously you couldn't garner that.

Whatever. It was mid-game S+G. I had 17 BB which is pretty big. I wasted all my bets. I was in for 4 big bets into now, 8 big bet pot. I thought I could possibly be ahead, but I was obviously wrong. Obviously I'm an idiot, but I find ways to win live and online.