Fold to turn raise?

jordanx · #1 06-06-2005, 05:03 AM

Live 3/6

I'm in the SB w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] table a couple players are sitting out and one player just busted, so it's 6 handed.

UTG (very loose) limps, folded to button who limps, I complete, BB checks (reasonably tight, doesn't get out of line too much).

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, BB calls, others fold.

Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, BB raises ... easy fold?

mantasm · #2 06-06-2005, 05:06 AM

Yeah, it's probably a split at best, and expensive to call down in this small pot.

aK13 · #3 06-06-2005, 05:09 AM

Pot is like 3BB, and you could be smashed or chopping the other percentage.

I think this is a very simple fold.

WillyTrailer · #4 06-06-2005, 05:27 AM

really??? you think it's easy to fold top pair heads up?
I'm sure there are spots where this is somewhat reasonable but I'd need a pretty darn good read to do it.

As it stands, the pot is 6 BB and you likely have a claim to half of it. There's a small chance you have a claim to all of it and another small chance that your opponent has an 8 and you're SOL. Now you have to pay two more big bets to take your claim.

If you fold here you read has to be really good. First of all he has to a moderately bad player. I mean, why raise the turn when you hit trips on a rainbow board and it's heads up. Almost surely the guy isn't holding AK, AQ, AJ, JJ or AA as you'd've probably found that out preflop. (but this info is, of course read dependent...maybe your man never raises preflop?)

So now we're just asking what are the chances that this turn bet means he has an 8? It has to be better than 60% that he has an 8 or we've gotta stay in here! Especially considering the pot was unraised preflop and he could be raising a pair of Jacks on the turn and the fact that it could get checked through on the river if we call the raise AND, if we are, in fact, behind we have two more ace outs.

Are you, AT THE VERY LEAST, 60% sure he has an 8???????

-WT

WillyTrailer · #5 06-06-2005, 06:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, why raise the turn when you hit trips on a rainbow board and it's heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I retract this comment and note that I should use a '?' sometimes.

-WT

jordanx · #6 06-06-2005, 07:30 AM

Yeah, I'm pretty sure he has the eight. He's not aggressive enough to bluff raise the turn here.

I mucked and he didn't show. I feel like I've been folding a lot lately and just wanted a quick compass check.

J. Sawyer · #7 06-06-2005, 08:52 AM

very easy fold given pot size and your read

WillyTrailer · #8 06-06-2005, 06:53 PM

wow! I can't believe I'm the only one who has a problem with this fold.

you said your opponent is 'reasonably tight'! does that just mean preflop???? because I don't think a 'reasonbly tight' player calls a bet into a small pot from bad position with two players left to act behind him with bottom pair!

I'm thinking I've got my 40% (and this threshold could quite easily be lower) or better chance to, at least, split this pot and I'm calling down.

Keep in mind that this is, of course, a view without a read on the actual player. If he'll call the flop bet there with just an 8 then I'm way off and you should fold, but from the way you described him I wouldn't buy it.

-WT