Review: Hands 10 and 12 AJ and AQ

[MrWookie47]

Both hands, hero PFR's, and gets donked on a raggy flop by the SB. SB bets the turn and hero calls. SB bets the river in the AJ hand and hero call. SB checks the river in the second and hero checks behind.

I fold the turn in both these hands barring a bluffalicious read on the SB.

[thesharpie]

I raise the flop in hand 10, giving us 10+ outs if drawing and a decent chance to still have the best hand. I'd likely take the free card and fold the river UI against an unknown. I might refire certain turn cards UI.

[MrWookie47]

Alright, that's a good plan, too. As hero played it, however, I still think a turn fold may be prudent in this small pot.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, that's a good plan, too. As hero played it, however, I still think a turn fold may be prudent in this small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the gutshot wheel draw?

[Somekid]

I'm confused. Where are these hands? Hand 10 in micro session IIa is a fold preflop.

[MrWookie47]

Getting 4.5:1, we have to give ourselves 4 outs for our overs and pray that SB doesn't have a 6. That's pretty borderline here. An A will complete another wheel draw, there may be a flush draw, and there's always ye olde reverse domination to worry about. I guess calling isn't terrible, but folding seems pretty reasonable to me. Even if calling that turn bet is OK, I think calling the river bet is burning money.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused. Where are these hands? Hand 10 in micro session IIa is a fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

We've moved on to Microsession III, which is not stickied yet.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 4.5:1, we have to give ourselves 4 outs for our overs and pray that SB doesn't have a 6. That's pretty borderline here. An A will complete another wheel draw, there may be a flush draw, and there's always ye olde reverse domination to worry about. I guess calling isn't terrible, but folding seems pretty reasonable to me. Even if calling that turn bet is OK, I think calling the river bet is burning money.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call the turn bet it's not because you had the odds to draw out; it's because you thought you might have the best hand. Nothing changed on the river so you have to call.

This is why it's important to realize on the turn that a call there is probably going to cost you 2 big bets. This is also why I agree that we should fold the turn here.

I think it's a pretty good rule of thumb that when heads up if you call a turn without proper odds to improve then you have to call the river most of the time (barring an obviously bad river card). If we think this way on the turn then we save money in the long run by not peeling one off to see what happens.

[Somekid]

Thanks. I'm pretty sure I fold the turn in hand 10 also. You're only getting 4.5 to 1, so we need about 8 outs. We've got four to the gutshot so we need four overcard outs. The problem with overcards is he will probably check/call if a jack or ace hits unless he hit two pair and had us reverse dominated. In that case we'll probably lose three bets since we would raise the river. Ace-rag could also mean our gutshot outs are to a split. I also think ace-rag is plausible given the PF action. I'd guess we have 7 outs. I say fold. Although I'd probably call while playing - I lack discipline.

Barring reads I think hand 12 is a really clear turn fold. He could be making an awkward steal defense but it's unlikely since our hero was in MP2.

[MrWookie47]

I disagree. Since it's reasonably close that hero has odds to draw, I think calling, and folding the river isn't too bad. Also, SB firing the third bullet is further evidence that A high is no good. I can see calling if SB will fire 3 times here with any two trying to push you off a hand, but most players either won't do it or will give up at some point. Occasionally, they'll fire twice, but not a third time.