Too weak with AA?

squeek12 · #1 06-06-2005, 03:35 AM

No reads yet at the table. Was I too weak after the flop cap?

I'm thinking TT or QQ is a real possibility for BB, and UTG coming along with all the action might be holding two pair. I've been running pretty badly, am I seeing monsters here?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 5 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

mantasm · #2 06-06-2005, 03:42 AM

Probably the only hands a normal person in the BB would play like this are TT, QQ, KK, and AA. Who knows what UTG has. Probably KJ or J9. I'd play it the same, raising the turn would be too much.

Oh, this should probably go in microlimits, by the way.

SNOWBALL138 · #3 06-06-2005, 04:29 AM

u have to raise the turn. Even if your hand is good less than half of the time, you have to raise the turn. You have good equity vs. 3 players. You only need >1/3 equity here, but UTG and BB are not drawing dead, so the times that you are ahead, you may still lose.

BTW, your hand is good more than 50% of the time here, and its going to win more than 1/3 of the time here. There are 6 ways BB can have top or middle set, and six ways he can have KK. Thats makes it 50/50 that you have him beat. However, if there's an outside chance that he would play AQ or KQ like that, then that tips the scales to you being a favorite and having him beat.
Calling the turn is weak. You have position on both players, so you won't raise out UTG and negate your equity. Add this to the fact that you have 2 outs vs. a set (assuming UTG doesn't have KJ here. Even though its the only rational draw out there, 1/2 players are not known for their rationality) and you have yourself a definite turn raise.
If u get 3 bet here, then u should just call down unless the river action is very ugly, in which case you can fold.

mantasm · #4 06-06-2005, 04:59 AM

I think BB's flop checkraise/cap on the flop after your preflop cap makes it much more likely that he has a set than KK or somethign like that. I'd say he has TT or QQ about two thirds of the time.

If you assume you have BB beat, you probably make an extra 1.6 or 1.7 BB by raising the turn because UTG will draw out some percent of the time. You'll probably lose nearly the full 2 BB if you raise and are 3bet because you're drawing dead or almost dead.

Those are some of the reasons I said call the turn but i didn't do the full ev calculations and I'm not going to. Intuitively i'd still think it's a call though.

mdeck · #5 06-06-2005, 05:13 AM

While you may have raising equity on UTG, I believe the situations in which you are truly behind and the BB 3bets you on the turn outweigh the profit you'd make from trapping UTG for one more bet the times he does not have the best hand. I'd raise the turn only if you're capable of folding to a 3-bet in this situation.

Personally I play it the same, as I'd have a hard time folding to a turn 3-bet, even though I knew I was beat. Therefore I just call down in this situation.

SNOWBALL138 · #6 06-06-2005, 05:50 AM

It seems fishy to me that BB would want to shove a double bet at UTG on the flop with a set. I think you are giving this 1/2 player more credit than he deserves. Small stakes players have a tendency to make irrational slowplays when they hit a set on the flop.

SNOWBALL138 · #7 06-06-2005, 05:53 AM

It seems fishy to me that BB would want to shove a double bet at UTG on the flop with a set. Small stakes players have a tendency to make irrational slowplays when they hit a set on the flop.
I think you are giving this 1/2 player more credit than he deserves. His flop c/r says to me "I am hoping I have you beat, and I want UTG out of this pot."

While getting 3 bet on the turn isn't going to be a nice experience, I still think that you're going to be ahead enough of the time here to make a turn raise profitable.

mantasm · #8 06-06-2005, 06:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think you are giving this 1/2 player more credit than he deserves. His flop c/r says to me "I am hoping I have you beat, and I want UTG out of this pot."

[/ QUOTE ]

What does the cap say?

SNOWBALL138 · #9 06-06-2005, 06:32 AM

the cap is just as consistent with AQ or KK as it was when he did the C/R.

For all you know, he has QK. People do strange things in 1/2. Overpairs aren't the nuts at low limit and so capping every street is typically a huge sucker play, but you can't waste opportunities like this.

At small stakes hold em, your hands are typically much stronger than they appear.

pyroponic · #10 06-06-2005, 07:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems fishy to me that BB would want to shove a double bet at UTG on the flop with a set. I think you are giving this 1/2 player more credit than he deserves. Small stakes players have a tendency to make irrational slowplays when they hit a set on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think calling down is the best play. If he were to play the flop bet/reraise, I would say there is an 80% chance he has QQ/TT because if he has AQs, he would proably not 3-bet the flop because he'd fear you had AA/KK/QQ after capping preflop. The same goes for KK for the same reason. Notice I said 3-bet because he would've done that if he used this line since he capped it in the actual hand.

After saying that, we must consider the check/raise on the flop, which is what actually happened. It was strange how he made UTG face two cold, but a lot of players don't even take something like that into consideration. Typically though, I think most people would bet/reraise as described above if they flopped a set here.

The check/raise on the flop takes maybe an 80% chance he has QQ/TT down to maybe 65-70%. So now there's a less chance he has a set, but there's still a good chance that we are behind. Thus I think calling down is better to avoid getting 3-bet on the turn. Then again I don't play $1/2 so there is a chance that we are not maximizing our profit if he indeed has KK or AQ here by giving this guy too much credit.