Fold this turn?

Kyriefurro · #1 06-03-2005, 03:24 PM

MP2 is 50/1/0.33 after about 100 hands.

BB is TAG.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP2 raises, BB calls, Hero folds.

MP2's raise screams Tx to me...leaving me drawing to just 2 outs. Fold is correct, right?

Roland19 · #2 06-03-2005, 03:26 PM

BB three bet the flop, I give him credit for Tx, and then MP2 woke up on the turn, I think that's gotta be a lower set that just filled up. There's no chance that your aces are good here, good fold.

Kyriefurro · #3 06-03-2005, 03:31 PM

Forgot to post read on BB. He's a solid TAG and probable 2+2er. Although a smaller set is possible, given his PF 3-bet, he's most likely got an overpair - least that's what I put him on.

hmkpoker · #4 06-03-2005, 03:54 PM

If he's a TAG, he'd have 3-bet you OOP with AK, possibly AQ, KK, QQ or JJ. Other possibilities are AA and TT, and maybe ATs.

The only thing he could possibly have on the flop that beats you is TT, or a very unlikely 77. He may figure you'd raise his overs if he was betting, say, AK, and it is unlikely you hit this flop. I would cap the flop and see what he does on the turn after that. When you called the flop, you told him he was ahead.

Note that he only called MP2's turn raise. Unless he's playing TT and going for an overcall from you, he doesn't have AT. He has JJ-KK.

sammy_g · #5 06-03-2005, 04:01 PM

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MP2 is 50/1/0.33 after about 100 hands.

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0.33 agression factor after 100 hands? That is passive. I probably fold against this player. You don't have odds to draw to a set.

ihardlyknowher · #6 06-03-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is 50/1/0.33 after about 100 hands.

BB is TAG.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP2 raises, BB calls, Hero folds.

MP2's raise screams Tx to me...leaving me drawing to just 2 outs. Fold is correct, right?

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I would cap the flop and raise the turn. Both you and BB think you have had the best hand since pre-flop (and you actually do - not likely BB has a T, 77, or 22). If you play it this way and MP3 3-bets the turn, then you know he has you beat, but should still probably call the 3-bet and draw to your 2 outs.

sammy_g · #7 06-03-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he's a TAG, he'd have 3-bet you OOP with AK, possibly AQ, KK, QQ or JJ. Other possibilities are AA and TT, and maybe ATs.

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ATs isn't likely if he's really a TAG.

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I would cap the flop and see what he does on the turn after that. When you called the flop, you told him he was ahead.

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Capping the flop is fine. Waiting until the turn to raise is also a good line. I'm happy if he thinks he's ahead.

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Note that he only called MP2's turn raise. Unless he's playing TT and going for an overcall from you, he doesn't have AT. He has JJ-KK.

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Yeah. I'm not worried about BB, though. I'm worried about MP2.

ckessel · #8 06-03-2005, 06:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is 50/1/0.33 after about 100 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good fold. Raising the turn versus TWO people showing flop aggression, means he's got it. You don't have odds to draw.

I hate folding AA, but .33 aggression is a mega-tell. The guy only raises nuts.

Chris Daddy Cool · #9 06-03-2005, 06:23 PM

all of this talk about bb is irrelevent, because you're beating him. it doesn't matter what he has. mp2 waking up means he has a ten like 97% of the time.

Vasquez · #10 06-03-2005, 06:39 PM

I think BB has KK-JJ. So, you have BB beat. Mp2 called two bets on the flop then raised on the turn. He probablly has Tx or made a boat. I would fold.