(Probably) Simple question about pot odds and flush draws

[captZEEbo1]

I was reading PL and NL poker by Ciaffone and Reuben which I'm sure many of you have read. p. 27 reads...

In a PL game (which is applicable to a NL game), suppose you hold Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. There is $100 in the pot. Three of you have stayed in for the flop. The first person bets $100 dollars, the middle person folds, and it is up to you. The author says, "You have a clear fold".

Basic reasons for the fold are:
1) pot odds are insufficient....immediate odds are 2:1, and you are 4:1 to hit
2) implied odds aren't great, b/c opponent likely assumes your most likely hand is the flush draw.
3) you aren't drawing at the nuts and can have horrible reverse implied odds.


Are good players regularly making this fold, or is the author off? My first instinct says that most everyone is calling (or possibly raising) this bet here. Or is this situation dependent (the author doesn't even mention stack sizes, or even if the pot was raised preflop and if so, by who).

P.S. for a frame of referene, they say that hands that dictate calling or raising include:
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Rococo]

Against reasonable opponents, Ciaffone seems right on the money to me.

[iceman5]

Alot would depend on stack sizes and how willing the guy would be to play you off if you hit....but my question would be that if your not going to peel one off and try to hit the flush here, then why are you playing QJs? It sure isnt to hit top pair.

[lennytheduck]

I agree with Iceman, though I am definitely raising here a lot more than calling, and doing one or the other a lot more than folding. This is definitely a case-dependent situation, however, which is why playing in games against LAGs and gamboolers is so desirable.

[Finite_Risk]

aren't you about 2/1 to hit flush? 9 outs twice = 35% to hit?

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
aren't you about 2/1 to hit flush? 9 outs twice = 35% to hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

2/1 to hit the flush by the river. You're calling 2:1 to see one card. big difference.

[Finite_Risk]

sorry...apparently can't read!

[creedofhubris]

People who call flush draws for the pot go into my buddy list.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. for a frame of referene, they say that hands that dictate calling or raising include:
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This baffles me.

I'm not a fan of drawing to open-ended straights on boards containing two to a flush. I'll do it with a read -- but this text presents no read, and some opponents will bet the pot here with a flush draw. (K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] especially).

Talk about reverse implied odds...

.. and, oh-by-the-way, OESD has fewer outs than a flush draw anyway, so the direct pot-odds argument that C&R present about the flush draw is even more of a reason to fold the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

-dB

[chuddo]

im sure he prefers the oesd simply because often times you can have better implied odds on getting paid off if you decide to take one off and hit it.

flush draws are what people automatically go to protect their holdings against, which is why it can be more profitable to have the straight draw.

plus when you call with one, hit it, people will often immediately get it in there on the turn because they put you on the flush draw with your call, and you can happily call and have them drawing either slim or dead.