Running Overcards: To Continuation Bet or Not To Continuation Bet?

[zeitgeist]

This is a freeroll, but you had to qualify for it first. 2000+ players, 1st prize is a WSOP seat. About 1100 are left and I have an average stack.

I've only seen Villain for this tournament, and only for 70 hands. Keeping that in mind, his VP$IP is 45% and PFR 3%.

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (10 handed) converter

CO (t650)
Button (t2100)
SB (t750)
Hero (t2550)
UTG (t3360)
UTG+1 (t7895)
UTG+2 (t4715)
MP1 (t725)
MP2 (t3385)
MP3 (t900)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of t100.
UTG calls t200, UTG+1 calls t200, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t700) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t360</font>, UTG calls t360, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (t1420) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t700</font>, UTG calls t700.

River: (t2820) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...?

Do you check or bet this river? And if you are bet into or raised (as applicable), how big a bet or raise will you call?

[A_PLUS]

I dont like the river bet at all. What hand is he going to call you with that you can beat? There are no apparent draws on board, so why would the Q scare him off, but not the Ace? Check and hope it gets checked down, call a token bet on the end, or just fold.

The ONLY situation where he may lay down a better hand, is if he had 99-TT, but he may not.

[zeitgeist]

[ QUOTE ]
Check and hope it gets checked down, call a token bet on the end, or just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Here's what happened:

River: (t2820) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t500</font>, Hero calls t500.

Final Pot: t3820

Do you call a T500 bet here?

[adam5206]

There are straight draws on bored which he could have been calling with. He also could have been calling with overcards, which would fit the situation.

I would have to put him on 2 over cards off the flop myself, probably with the A hitting him. Fold and cut your losses.

[JC_Saves]

I don't like your Turn bet here. With the over card hitting the board I think I would have checked and seen what happens. With the Q hitting on the river I would not have bet it, and I would have folded to any bet.

You lost 1200 more on this hand than you had to. You had a pair of 8's with a J kicker, which is not a great hand when there are an A and Q there. Your turn bet seems a little desparate to me. I think that you turn bet is very suspicious. I would have thrown out 300 if I was going to bet and see what happens. Your opponent might think hey, he is trying to lure me in and fold, and if he comes over the top of you, fold it.