bet this draw for value on the turn?

dark_horse · #1 05-31-2005, 03:43 PM

assuming my overs were also good, that's a monster on the turn, although anyone with a 9 would beat my pair of jacks on the river. however these are things i try not to worry about in shorthanded games. is that a mistake?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

7ontheline · #2 05-31-2005, 04:51 PM

Standard.

JrJordan · #3 05-31-2005, 04:59 PM

I like it. Your Q and J outs might be tainted because of the drawy board, so we'll assume 16 outs instead of the full 18. You're almost break even on value if both opponents call, but it gives you deception value if you hit and perhaps gives you some folding equity if they just peeled one on the flop.

ZZZ · #4 05-31-2005, 05:06 PM

Turn is pretty close, I think. I tend to fire again. I would hardly call your hand a monster - you are a dog to any pair, though you do probably have value if they both call.

I think you should fire the last barrel on the river. SB could easily be on an A or K high draw. K high will almost certainly fold, A high might.

ZZZ

Lost Wages · #5 05-31-2005, 05:17 PM

I bet the river as well.

Lost Wages

dark_horse · #6 05-31-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the river as well.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

I see a couple of people are suggesting this. This is a concept that I'm not too familiar with, bluffing into two people who are calling you down on every street in a 6max game. But what I have noticed in these games is that when I am betting my made hands my opponents are often folding at the river. However I can't imagine getting both of them to fold on the river. I guess it depends on the potsize and your estimated odds of them folding.

On the other hand, there are some tables where people call you down with almost anything, and habitually call down with ace high to the river, even if another player is threatening to overcall behind him. Maybe bet the river in a 5/10 6max game? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Lost Wages · #7 05-31-2005, 05:30 PM

You post shows only one opponent on the river. If it's a mistake and there were two then I would definitely give it up. If I had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] against one opponent I would check it through as well.

Lost Wages

ZZZ · #8 05-31-2005, 05:33 PM

You only have one opponent on the river. Makes a bet much more attractive, as you know. I'd reluctantly check against two players (my reluctance may be ill-founded, but I HATE checking a river and seeing K high or worse take it down! I find it embarassing and beneath me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

ZZZ

dark_horse · #9 05-31-2005, 05:36 PM

you're right, there was only one opponent. sorry. i suppose it's more commonplace to follow through with your missed draws on the river than in a full ring, then? although, it's never good to establish rules of thumb when it comes to poker. anyway, in this case villian flopped a pair of sevens so i was going to get called. but that doesn't have much bearing on whether or not the play would have been correct.

StellarWind · #10 05-31-2005, 05:56 PM

The turn bet performs three functions:

1. Value. It's possible you can get two opponents to call an 18-out draw. It's even possible you have the best hand. But the key value idea is that you have so much equity that the immediate EV cost of betting is probably quite low. That makes it cheap to pursue objectives 2 and 3.

2. Bluff. You might become the best hand by eliminating an ace or especially a king.

3. Bluff prevention. You cannot afford to call a river bet. The turn bet discourages someone from betting the river with a busted flush or straight draw.

I would not bet the river because my hand is too good and kings do not connect well with this board. I fully recognize the opportunity to win by bluffing but it feels like my chance to catch him with the right hand and fold it is too small. But perhaps two recent incidents involving unimproved jacks have colored my views [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img].